The weekend of the US-Israel war with Iran delivered a presidential tirade, fresh attacks on Gulf port infrastructure, and disputed claims over an Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) vessel while new market data confirms that crude tanker tonne-miles have collapsed to levels worse than anything recorded during the covid pandemic.

Last night, president Donald Trump issued a profanity-laden post on Truth Social that left little room for diplomatic interpretation. “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran,” he wrote, adding: “Open the F***in’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!” The post underlined that Washington’s patience with the Hormuz impasse is running out, even as both sides continue to trade strikes on energy and military infrastructure.

There were limited signs of progress on cargo movement. Iraq has been permitted to route shipments through the area, and Qatar is preparing its first LNG transit since the conflict began – tentative movements that fall well short of any meaningful reopening but suggest Iran is selectively managing access for non-hostile parties.

The weekend brought fresh violence to Gulf ports. A fire broke out at Khorfakkan Port in the UAE’s Sharjah emirate after shrapnel fell as a result of an aerial interception by UAE air defence systems. The Sharjah government confirmed four injuries among port workers – one Nepali national sustaining severe injuries requiring hospitalisation, and three Pakistani nationals suffering minor to moderate injuries from falling fragments. The captain of a containership at Khorfakkan also reported seeing multiple splashes from unknown projectiles in close proximity to the vessel, according to UKMTO. Emergency response teams contained the resulting fire, with cooling operations subsequently underway. A number of Middle Eastern refineries also came under attack over the weekend, further degrading regional energy infrastructure.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed on Saturday to have struck the MSC Ishyka containership, with a drone attack at Khalifa Bin Salman port in Bahrain, saying the Liberian-flagged ship “caught fire.” The claim appears questionable – MarineTraffic data showed the vessel still moored at the Bahrain port on Friday night, and the Guards’ own account was contradicted by an earlier post on X claiming the attack occurred “in the Strait of Hormuz.” No independent confirmation of damage has emerged.

Analysis from Veson Nautical reveals that total crude tanker tonne-miles fell 13.7% year-on-year in March 2026, and 16.4% when normalised by the live fleet – a steeper decline than any month recorded during the covid pandemic. VLCCs bore the sharpest blow: total VLCC tonne-miles dropped 20% year-on-year, with the per-vessel figure collapsing 27%, reflecting tonnage sitting largely idle as Gulf crude exports dried up. Aframax and suezmax segments proved more resilient, with aframax tonne-miles rising 7% year-on-year as non-Gulf, shorter-haul trades continued to function relatively normally.

April will be the critical test. If Asian refiners are genuinely compensating for lost Gulf supply by sourcing crude from the Atlantic Basin, VLCC tonne-miles should begin recovering – on longer average voyage lengths than before the conflict, which would ultimately support rates.

Broker Arrow believes the structural dislocation will outlast any near-term diplomatic resolution. “Even if the US ‘exits’ the war, or Iran abruptly re-opens the Strait, the current imbalance in global tanker positioning – now skewed heavily to the Atlantic – will not unwind at a similar pace,” the broker said. “We therefore expect VLCC rates to remain supported for longer than the initial geopolitical impulse might suggest.”