Transport & Environment (T&E) released an open letter signed by 100 scientists urging world leaders at COP30 to recognise the climate, social and environmental risks of an unchecked expansion of global biofuels demand.

The scientists call for governments and international bodies, including the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to focus on genuinely sustainable, scalable fuels rather than doubling down on crop-based biofuels.

The letter lands just as leaders gather in Belém for the COP30 summit, where Brazil is expected to launch a global pledge to quadruple the use of “sustainable fuels,” including doubling biofuel consumption.

At the IMO, Brazil – currently the second largest biofuels producer worldwide – has been promoting the use of biofuels as a way to decarbonize the shipping sector.

Global shipping is at risk of expanding into harmful biofuels, if unregulated. Both the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) and the 2023 Revised GHG Strategy, which commits to full decarbonisation by 2050, currently lack any safeguards or sustainability criteria for biofuels.

This gap means that as the IMO works to define its net-zero pathway, crop-based biofuels could rapidly expand without any environmental or social protections in place. Scientists warn that this would undermine climate progress, worsen deforestation, and deepen global food insecurity the very impacts climate action seeks to avoid.

Biofuels have become a live issue at the IMO as countries define the fuels and technologies that will be part of the green future of shipping. As biofuels are cheap and largely available, they have been looked at by the shipping industry as an easy way to meet its decarbonization targets. But without sustainability criteria, according to experts, this pathway risks replicating the same environmental and food security crises already seen in the road and aviation sectors.

Scientists warn that expanding crop-based biofuels to sectors like shipping could undermine global net-zero goals, displace communities, and drive deforestation.

Already, growing crops for fuel uses 32 million hectares of land, an area about the size of Italy, to meet just 4% of transport fuel demand. By 2030, this could rise to 52 million hectares, roughly the size of France.

Despite being branded “green,” crop-based biofuels emit on average 16% more CO2 than fossil fuels once land use change impacts are included. These same crops – soy and palm oil, in particular – could otherwise feed up to 1.3 billion people. Today, about a fifth of the world’s vegetable oil supply is burned in cars instead of being used for food.

At last month’s IMO meetings (ISWG-GHG-20), member states remained divided on biofuels’ role in the maritime transition. Brazil, Indonesia and several African countries pushed for a “technology-neutral” approach that would allow food and feed-based biofuels to count toward emissions targets. The EU and Pacific Island states countered that this risks repeating the mistakes seen in road transport and aviation, arguing instead for a shift toward renewable e-fuels.

However, discussions have stalled: the US, Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries argued against further work on these sustainability safeguards until after the NZF’s adoption, despite previously citing the absence of such clarifications as a reason for delay.

Researchers, civil society groups, and international campaigners have called on the IMO to incorporate indirect land-use change (ILUC) into its forthcoming Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) guidelines to prevent the unregulated uptake of biofuels. This has received the support of Mexico, UK, and several Pacific Islands who also expressed their concerns for addressing food security and environmental sustainability. The guidelines are due to be finalised in April 2026.
Source: Transport & Environment (T&E)