This week we take a closer look at the shifting grain flows of 2025, as U.S.–China trade tensions continue to dominate global perspectives. Agriculture remains at the core of these frictions, with China’s move away from U.S. soybeans becoming increasingly evident and Brazil solidifying its role as the leading supplier.

As highlighted in our July Commodity Radar report, this shift aligns with China’s strategic goal of reducing reliance on the U.S. for agricultural imports. Since 2022, the U.S. has lost a significant share of China’s soybean purchases, while Brazil and increasingly Argentina have stepped in to fill the gap. Latest TSOP data show that U.S. soybean exports to China collapsed to just 783,000 tonnes in Q2 2025, down 85% from the previous quarter and 67% lower year-over-year. This effectively represents a near-cessation of flows, underscoring the severity of the structural decoupling.

Recent reports suggest Chinese processors could import up to 10 million metric tons of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina during the 2025/26 marketing year, which would mark a record. When looking at the grain flows, we can see that on Brazil–China soybean flows are maintaining strong seasonal flows, while Argentina is also emerging as a complementary supplier.​​​​​​

Meanwhile, the U.S. soybean sector faces structural challenges in regaining lost market share in China, despite strong domestic demand. However, a new development is emerging Japan has deepened its partnership with U.S. corn exporters. Following the July 2025 trade agreement in which Japan committed to purchasing approximately $8 billion in U.S. agricultural goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizer, bioethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel, Japan is now positioning itself to broaden its import strategy, with policymakers considering expanded usage not only in feed but also for renewable energy and broader agri‑industrial applications.

‘The Big Picture’ – Capesize Softer

C3 and C5 routes are showing signs of a downward revision, with current rates at $24/ton for Brazil–China and $10.4/ton for Australia–China. Oversupply in the South Atlantic is evident during the summer, with the excess consistently above 200, reaching around 255 since mid-August. Similarly, the C5 route has seen a decrease in ballasters heading to West Australia, now around 160, though this is still almost 20 more than the early August low.

SECTION 3/ DEMAND

Capesize Tonne Days | Bauxite Decreasing

Amid signs of a strong first half in Capesize tonne-day growth for bauxite shipments from Africa to the Far East, the summer season has shown a clear slowdown, with tonne-day levels recently dropping to their lowest point of the year. Earlier projections of a deceleration from the rapid expansion seen in the first quarter toward the third quarter now seem confirmed. However, current growth remains about 40% higher than the levels recorded in early September.

SECTION 4/ CONGESTION

Tianjin Increasing

This week’s focus is on the rising port congestion in Tianjin, where the number of vessels waiting has surpassed 120, with the Supramax segment accounting for more than half of this activity. Estimated port days have also spiked to nearly 13, compared with the low of 8 recorded at the end of June. From a seasonal perspective, congestion at Tianjin has now reached its highest level not only this year but also relative to previous years. The key question in the coming days is whether this acceleration will be sustained, as
prolonged congestion could provide additional support to the Baltic Supramax Index.
Source: By Maria Bertzeletou, Signal Group, https://go.thesignalgroup.com/l/983831/2025-09-03/2rdpzf/983831/1756905540NurglTTB/DryWeek36.pdf