Please find attached a media preview copy of Dryad Global’s latest Metis Insights report: Northern Sea Route (NSR) Risk Outlook — Arctic shipping, sanctions, safety and insurance implications.

The analysis is authored by Dryad Global Analyst, Brianna Campbell and examines how changing Arctic accessibility is colliding with sanctions pressure, operational safety constraints, and insurance viability — and what this could mean for commercial shipping decisions over the next 12–24 months.

The report concludes that while the NSR remains the most developed Arctic route as sea ice retreats, growth has been gradual due to harsh operating conditions, limited infrastructure, and conditional economic viability.

Key findings include:

International uptake is increasingly China-led as sanctions and environmental concerns reduce Western participation.

A strengthening Russia–China commercial and military partnership in the Arctic could challenge established access norms, including the potential for tolls or selective restrictions if control consolidates.

The report flags regulatory backsliding and safety risks, including “shadow fleet” activity on the NSR without sufficient ice-classing or icebreaker escort, increasing the likelihood of serious incidents in a region with limited SAR capacity.

Insurance is a gating factor: limited incident history constrains risk modelling, with the report noting reported premium loadings and the additional costs of ice-classing and icebreaking/escort requirements.

Brianna Campbell, Dryad Global Analyst, said: “The NSR can reduce transit times, but it concentrates operational and compliance risk. Our assessment shows why route planning in the Arctic must account for safety standards, sanctions exposure, infrastructure constraints, and the insurance conditions that ultimately determine viability.”
Source: Dryad Global