Major ocean carriers have been experimenting with a return to the shorter Red Sea-Suez Canal route from Asia to Europe and the US East Coast, but recent actions by the US government and threats from Houthi rebels may delay the move.

Most commercial shipping stopped using the Suez Canal just more than two years ago because of missile and drone attacks from Yemen-backed Houthi rebels, who were attacking vessels affiliated with Israel.
But tensions eased after a ceasefire was declared between Israel and Hamas, leading the Houthis to announce in November that they were halting attacks, prompting shippers to again look at the shorter route.

Container shipping majors CMA CGM and Maersk have successfully transited the canal recently, but as tensions in the Middle East have been reignited by political unrest in Iran, a full return to the route seems to be facing another delay.

Lars Jensen, president of consultant Vespucci Maritime, noted that on the 800th day of the Red Sea crisis threats of future attacks cannot be dismissed.

Jensen said the Houthis released two propaganda videos, an 18-second video alluding to an attack on vessels with the word “soon” written in Arabic, and a nine-minute video showing details of the attack on “Marlin Luanda” in January 2024.

“On one hand, we could, some say should, ignore this as scare tactics on the part of the Houthis,” Jensen said. “On the other hand, the Houthis have indeed proven themselves not only very capable in disrupting shipping over the past two years, but also clearly willing to follow up threats with action.”

US President Donald Trump said late last week that an armada of US warships was headed toward the Middle East as his administration continues to watch how the Iranian government deals with protests.

IMPACT ON CONTAINER RATES
Market intelligence group Linerlytica said uncertainty around whether carriers will or will not return to the vital waterway has continued to “rile the market”.

Linerlytica attributed a rally in freight futures over the past week after CMA CGM announced it is rerouting its FAL 1, FAL 3 and MEX services via the Cape of Good Hope “in light of the complex and uncertain international context” after sending the services through the canal on the front haul.

The move “signaled to its rivals against an early return to the Suez that could drag down freight rates that are already under downward pressure”, Linerlytica said.

Even if a further escalation in Middle East tensions results in a delay in the return to the Suez, it may not be sufficient to arrest the rate decline as rates are expected to remain weak after the holidays in Asia, Linerlytica said.

Maersk said on 15 January that it was implementing its first structural change of a service back to the trans-Suez route beginning on 26 January.

Supply chain advisors Drewry said the conflicting operational decisions by Maersk and CMA CGM suggest that effective shipping capacity will be reintroduced to the market gradually rather than all at once.

“This ‘drip-feed’ approach allows carriers to carefully assess risk and adjust their future networks, preventing a catastrophic collapse in spot rates,” Drewry said.

The return to full use of the Suez Canal will have more impact on Asia-Europe trade.

Prior to the Red Sea issues, about 30% of all global container trade passed through the Suez, while only 12% of US-bound cargo typically used that route, meaning there was less of an impact on US-bound volumes.

Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets.

They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks.
Source: ICIS by Adam Yanelli, https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/01/27/11175226/full-return-to-red-sea-route-could-be-paused-after-new-threats-from-houthi-rebels/