Global Goods Trade Gains as Tariff Fears Speed Imports, WTO Says

June 26th, 2025

(Bloomberg) —

Global merchandise trade accelerated in the World Trade Organization’s latest assessment, with a surge in imports tied to tariff stockpiling outweighing a slowdown in export orders.

The WTO’s goods barometer rose to 103.5 in the first quarter, the highest level since August 2021, from the previous reading of 102.8, released in March, the Geneva-based organization said Thursday. The baseline of 100 indicates growth over the next quarter that’s in line with medium-term trends.

Export orders were the only category in negative territory, the data showed. Increases were seen in air freight and container shipping along with rising demand for autos and electronics, the WTO said.

US President Donald Trump’s higher taxes on goods entering the US — and threats to raise them even higher — have led companies to rush orders to avoid the extra costs.

“This indicates strong trade volume growth in the first several months of 2025 possibly due to importers moving up purchases of goods in anticipation of higher tariffs in the future,” the report said. “If so, trade growth should slow later in the year as sellers draw down inventories rather than importing more goods.”