At the close of Week 49, the global MABUX bunker indices moved in mixed directions, with no distinct trend emerging. The 380 HSFO index rose by USD 6.26, from USD 403.89/MT last week to USD 410.15/MT. The VLSFO index edged up by USD 1.28, from USD 487.83/MT to USD 489.11/MT, while still remaining below the USD 500/MT threshold. In contrast, the MGO LS index declined by USD 2.27, from USD 767.52/MT last week to USD 765.25/MT. At the time of writing, global bunker fuel prices continued to show no clear directional momentum.

At the close of Week 49, the MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—declined by $4.98, from $83.94 last week to $78.96, once again falling below the $80.00 level. The spread also remained firmly under the psychological $100.00 threshold (SS breakeven). The weekly average value of the index decreased by $3.77. In Rotterdam, the SS spread narrowed by $5.00 to $41.00, compared to $46.00 last week. The port’s weekly average SS value also decreased by $3.67. In Singapore, by contrast, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread widened by $3.00, from $80.00 last week to $83.00. However, the weekly average SS value in the port declined by $6.00. Overall, the SS spread has exhibited no material recovery, with values remaining well below $100.00, thereby sustaining the stronger relative economics of conventional VLSFO versus the 380 HSFO + scrubber configuration. We expect the SS spread to retain its current trajectory into next week. Further details are available in the “Differentials” section at mabux.com.

As new emission control areas (ECAs) continue to emerge worldwide—most recently the Mediterranean ECA, which entered into force on May 1, 2025—it has become increasingly important to compare pricing for the zone’s conventional compliant fuel, ULSFO (0.10% sulfur), against the traditional and currently most expensive grade, MGO LS. This comparison is essential for assessing the outlook for the development of regional ECA bunker markets. In this context, we are launching publication of the ECA Spread for the MedECA zone. By the end of the week, the Istanbul ECA Spread decreased by $5.00 ($95.00 versus $100.00 last week), while in Venice the ECA Spread dropped by $24.00. Nevertheless, ECA Spread values remain at or near the psychological $100.00 level, supporting a comfortable price differential in favor of ULSFO. This continues to stimulate demand for ULSFO and creates the conditions for further expansion of this segment within the MedECA bunker market. Further details are available in the “Differentials” section at mabux.com.

According to Kpler, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports recorded a 40% year-on-year increase in November, reaching an estimated 10.7 million tons. This surge made the United States the first country to export more than 10 million tons of LNG in a single month. The ample supply has already exerted downward pressure on European natural gas prices, which have fallen to their lowest levels in more than a year despite the onset of colder winter weather. Market forecasts suggest that prices could decline further in the coming months, even though winter traditionally represents the peak demand period.

As of Dec. 02, European regional gas storage sites were filled to 74.95% (down 2.64% from the previous week), while gas withdrawal rates increased sharply over the week. Current storage levels are close to the early-2025 benchmark of 71.33% and exceed it by only 3.62%. Although European gas reserves continue to decline and remain below last year’s level for the same period, increasing LNG inflows are helping to ease concerns over a potential supply shortfall. By the end of Week 49, the European gas benchmark TTF extended its moderate decline, falling by 1.897 euros/MWh to 28.050 euros/MWh, compared with 29.747 euros/MWh last week.

The price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) fell by a further $36.00 this week, to $668/MT from $706/MT the previous week. The price differential between LNG and conventional fuel remained in LNG’s favor, narrowing to $85 from $122 a week earlier: MGO LS was quoted at $753/MT in Sines on the same day. More detailed information is available in the “LNG Bunkering” section at mabux.com.

By the end of Week 49, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—reflecting the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP)—continued to indicate a prevailing underpricing trend across all major fuel grades in the world’s key hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:

• 380 HSFO segment: Average weekly MDI values in Rotterdam remained unchanged, while the index increased by 2 points in Singapore, 1 point in Fujairah, and 5 points in Houston.

• VLSFO segment: MDI values rose across all hubs: by 2 points in Rotterdam, 9 points in Singapore, 7 points in Fujairah, and 2 points in Houston. Houston’s MDI remained close to 100% correlation between MBP and DBP.

• MGO LS segment: MDI underpricing levels narrowed substantially: by 12 points in Rotterdam, 11 points in Singapore, 35 points in Fujairah, and 23 points in Houston. Singapore’s MDI moved closer to 100% correlation.

Overall, the balance of overvalued versus undervalued ports was unchanged from the previous week and remained firmly in the undervalued zone. We expect the underpricing trend to persist in the global bunker market next week.

More detailed information on MBP/DBP correlation is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section at mabux.com.

Total marine fuel sales at the Port of Rotterdam reached 2.45 million metric tons between July and September, with alternative bunker fuels accounting for 13.2% of the total—the highest share among major global hubs. Biofuel deliveries, consisting mainly of biodiesel–fuel oil blends, amounted to 201,319 tonnes, while fossil-based LNG volumes totaled 121,614 tonnes. Despite the decision by IMO member states in mid-October to postpone the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework by one year, the Port of Rotterdam continues to advance its decarbonization strategy across key segments of the local bunker market. Several infrastructure projects are currently in progress to expand storage capacity for LNG and biofuels. At the Gate terminal, a new 180,000-cubic-meter LNG storage tank has been completed, with an additional 4 bcm/year of regasification capacity scheduled to come online in the second half of 2026. Rotterdam also handles approximately 2 million tons of methanol and 400,000 tons of ammonia annually—volumes largely derived from fossil-fuel production. These existing flows are expected to form the foundation for the medium-term transition to methanol and ammonia bunkering operations, supporting the port’s broader shift toward lower-carbon fuels.

The global bunker market continues to show a relatively stable pattern. We expect that next week global bunker indices will continue to fluctuate in mixed directions, with no clear or sustained momentum.
Source: By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX