Following the results of the 5th week, global bunker indices published by MABUX continued their upward trajectory. The 380 HSFO index increased by USD 8.78, rising from USD 415.14/MT last week to USD 423.92/MT. The VLSFO index gained USD 8.46, climbing from USD 494.58/MT to USD 503.04/MT and once again surpassing the USD 500/MT threshold. The MGO LS index recorded the strongest growth, adding USD 23.06 and increasing from USD 753.46/MT last week to USD 776.52/MT. At the time of writing, the global bunker market continued to demonstrate a moderate upward movement.

The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—defined as the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—continued to narrow, declining by USD 0.32 from USD 79.44 last week to USD 79.12. The spread remains firmly below the psychological threshold of USD 100.00 (SS breakeven), while the weekly average value of the index decreased by USD 1.27. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread also contracted by USD 8.00, falling from USD 56.00 last week to USD 48.00 and dropping below the USD 50.00 level. The port’s weekly average SS value declined by USD 5.67. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential decreased by USD 10.00, from USD 71.00 last week to USD 61.00, while the weekly average value in the port fell by USD 6.50. As a result, SS Spread indices resumed their downward trend this week. Under current global bunker market conditions, conventional VLSFO continues to remain more cost-effective than the combination of 380 HSFO plus scrubber operation. Nevertheless, we consider the present decline in the SS Spread to be temporary, and index values may begin to recover in the short term. Detailed data and analytics are available in the Differentials section at mabux.com.

By the end of the week, the Istanbul ECA Spread (ES) remained unchanged at USD 75.00, despite reaching USD 90.00 earlier in the week. At the same time, the weekly average value of the index increased by USD 20.83. In Venice, the ECA Spread continued to narrow, declining by USD 34.00 from USD 99.00 to USD 65.00, while the weekly average value decreased by USD 15.67. Overall, ES dynamics in both ports remain downward, with spreads consolidating in the USD 75.00–65.00 range. This movement occurred against a backdrop of rising ULSFO prices, driven by a slight reduction in regional supply and, consequently, tighter market availability. Meanwhile, MGO prices remained relatively stable, supported by more balanced supply–demand fundamentals. We believe that as ULSFO supply increases, ECA Spread values are likely to stabilize again around the USD 100.00 level. Further details are available in the Differentials section at mabux.com.

According to Kpler, around 37 million tons per year of new LNG production capacity could come online this year, in addition to the 51 million tons commissioned last year. This expansion in supply is expected to put downward pressure on prices, which could in turn dampen purchasing activity across Asia, particularly in China. However, potentially lower prices may also stimulate Chinese LNG import demand, which is projected to rise to 73 million tons this year from 68.43 million tons in 2025. Europe, meanwhile, imported well over 100 million tons of liquefied natural gas last year. For the current year, Kpler forecasts a further substantial increase in supplies, with total imports expected to reach approximately 145 million tons by the end of 2026. Additional challenges for the global LNG market this year include the restart of additional nuclear reactors in Japan—where energy security considerations have outweighed concerns over a potential repeat of the Fukushima accident—and China’s ongoing efforts to increase domestic natural gas production.

As of January 27, European regional gas storage facilities were filled to 44.23%, down by 4.89 percentage points from the previous week. Gas withdrawals accelerated in January amid colder-than-usual weather across most European countries, with withdrawal rates reaching their highest level over the past five years. At the same time, storage levels are already 17.23 percentage points below those recorded on January 1, 2026 (61.46%). By the end of week 5, the European TTF gas benchmark continued its upward trend, increasing by €2.574/MWh to €38.761/MWh from €35.887/MWh last week, temporarily exceeding the €40.000/MWh threshold.

The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) continued its sharp upward trajectory this week, rising by a further USD 150.00 to USD 979/MT, compared with USD 829/MT last week. As a result, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel widened to USD 243 in favor of conventional fuel. MGO LS was assessed at USD 736/MT at the port of Sines on January 26. More detailed information is available in the LNG Bunkering section of mabux.com.

By the end of week 5, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—reflecting the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP)—indicated undervaluation across all bunker fuel grades in the world’s major hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:

• 380 HSFO segment: Average weekly MDI undervaluation decreased by 6 points in Rotterdam, 13 points in Singapore, 18 points in Fujairah, and 2 points in Houston.

• VLSFO segment: The MDI remained unchanged in Rotterdam and Fujairah, while declining by 6 points in Singapore and 4 points in Houston. Notably, the Houston MDI remains close to the 100% parity level between MBP and DBP.

• MGO LS segment: Fujairah returned to undervaluation territory, resulting in all four ports showing undervaluation in this fuel category. The MDI increased by 1 point in Rotterdam, 10 points in Singapore, 20 points in Fujairah, and 30 points in Houston.

Overall, by the end of the reporting week, the undervaluation trend once again became dominant across all bunker fuel segments, and we expect this tendency to persist into the coming week.

More detailed analysis of the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark is available in the Digital Bunker Prices section at mabux.com.

The International Windship Association (IWSA) projects that at least 80 vessels could be equipped with wind propulsion systems by 2026, effectively doubling the number of wind-assisted ships currently in operation. According to the association, 31 vessels were fitted with wind propulsion systems in 2025, bringing the cumulative total since 2010 to 85 vessels. IWSA further reports that the current orderbook for wind propulsion installations exceeds 120 vessels. The anticipated acceleration in deployment is driven by a significant expansion in production capacity among wind propulsion suppliers—several of whom have established manufacturing facilities in China capable of producing hundreds of systems annually—as well as by growing shipyard experience with these technologies. In addition, shorter lead times, now averaging less than 12 months, mean that some new orders placed in the coming weeks could still be delivered by year-end and counted toward the 2026 total. Wind propulsion systems are also being installed on progressively larger vessels. Over the past 12 months, multiple installations have been completed on large ships, including LR2-class tankers and very large ore carriers (VLOCs). Another notable trend is the rising share of orders from the tanker segment. Of the 31 vessels expected to be equipped with wind propulsion systems in 2025, 16 were tankers—including chemical, product and crude oil tankers, as well as LPG and CO₂ carriers—whereas in previous years most installations were concentrated on bulk carriers and general cargo vessels.

We expect the current upward momentum in global bunker market prices is likely to persist in the coming week.
Source: By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX