At the end of Week 31, the global MABUX bunker indices continued to move in different directions. The 380 HSFO index rose by 7.71 USD, increasing from 465.21 USD/MT the previous week to 472.92 USD/MT, gradually approaching the 500.00 USD threshold. The VLSFO index also showed growth, climbing by 6.70 USD from 555.18 USD/MT to 561.88 USD/MT. In contrast, the MGO index declined slightly by 0.31 USD, moving from 792.08 USD/MT to 791.77 USD/MT, although it still remains near the 800 USD mark. As of the time of writing, there are signs of a resumption of the upward trend in the global bunker market.

The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—continued its moderate decline, dropping by $1.01 from $89.97 to $88.96, remaining below the psychological $100.00 breakeven mark (SS Breakeven). The weekly average of the global index also fell by $1.88. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread decreased by another $1.00, from $67.00 to $66.00, while the weekly average in the port declined by $1.84. Conversely, in Singapore, the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO increased by $3.00, from $99.00 to $102.00, once again surpassing the $100.00 threshold. However, the weekly average in the port still fell by $1.66. The mixed dynamics of the SS Spread indices illustrate the current transitional state of the bunker market, which is gradually working toward establishing a sustainable trend. For now, the use of conventional VLSFO fuel continues to offer greater profitability than the combination of HSFO and scrubber technology. More detailed analysis is available in the “Differentials” section at mabux.com.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global natural gas demand growth is projected to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to about 1.3% in 2025. However, demand is expected to rebound in 2026, accelerating to around 2% as expanding LNG supplies—particularly from the United States, Canada, and Qatar—boost availability and drive higher consumption in Asia. LNG output is forecast to grow by 7% in 2026, marking the largest annual increase since 2019. The IEA notes that these projections come amid heightened uncertainty in the global macroeconomic outlook and geopolitical instability. The agency continues to monitor gas markets closely and engage with stakeholders to ensure supply security.

As of July 29, European regional gas storage facilities were 67.63% full, marking an increase of 2.21% compared to the previous week but a decline of 3.70% from the beginning of the year, when storage levels stood at 71.33%. The gas injection process in the European Union remains ongoing as the region prepares for the coming heating season. At the end of Week 31, the European gas benchmark TTF recorded a price increase of 0.992 euros/MWh, rising from 33.111 euros/MWh the previous week to 34.103 euros/MWh.

The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) dropped by another USD 57 by the end of the week, reaching USD 752/MT, compared to USD 809/MT the previous week. Meanwhile, the price difference between LNG and conventional fuel remained favorable for LNG. As of July 28, the gap widened to USD 40 in favor of LNG, up from just USD 3 the week before. On the same day, MGO LS was quoted at USD 792/MT in the port of Sines. More detailed information is available in the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.

At the end of Week 31, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which reflects the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), showed mixed trends in average weekly bunker prices across the world’s major hubs—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:

• 380 HSFO segment: All ports remained in the undervalued zone. MDI values declined by 2 points in Rotterdam and by 3 points in Houston, while increasing by 4 points in Singapore and 3 points in Fujairah. Notably, Rotterdam’s MDI approached the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.

• VLSFO segment: Rotterdam was the only port that remained overvalued, with its MDI index falling by 1 point yet still holding near the 100% correlation level. The other three ports—Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston—continued to show undervaluation. MDI levels rose by 4 points in Singapore and by 5 points in Fujairah but dropped by 8 points in Houston.

• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam again stood out as the only overvalued port, with its MDI increasing by 8 points. The remaining ports—Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston—were all undervalued. MDI values rose slightly by 1 point in Singapore and Houston, while decreasing by 1 point in Fujairah, where the index still remained above the $100.00 mark.

Overall, there were no substantial changes in the pattern of overvalued and undervalued ports by the end of the week. The global bunker market continues to be characterized by a dominant trend toward fuel undervaluation, and there are currently no signs indicating a shift in the prevailing MDI dynamics.

More detailed information on the correlation between market bunker prices and the MABUX digital benchmark can be found in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on the website mabux.com.

The Port of Rotterdam recorded a 4.1% decline in total cargo throughput during the first half of 2025, handling 211 million tonnes. The most significant drop occurred in dry bulk, which fell by 8.9%, followed by a 5.3% decline in liquid bulk to 96.2 million tonnes. Within liquid bulk, crude oil throughput rose by 2.6% to 50.1 million tonnes, driven by increased shipments to German refineries. LNG volumes grew by 9.0% as Europe replenished gas stocks over the summer. However, other liquid bulk segments declined, notably due to reduced biodiesel imports from China—attributed to anti-dumping duties—and decreased use of palm oil in European biodiesel production. Container throughput rose by 2.7% in TEU but declined by 1% in tonnage. The port also experienced exceptional congestion in container handling, with over 100 vessels processing more than 12,000 TEU. Despite the challenging conditions, the port made progress on its long-term sustainability goals. Key developments included the ongoing construction of the Porthos carbon capture and storage facility and the installation of new onshore power plants, as part of its ambition to achieve zero CO₂ emissions by 2050.

The current geopolitical and global economic landscape—particularly the potential introduction of increased import tariffs in the United States—has the potential to trigger a renewed upward trend in global bunker prices. Based on current indicators, we anticipate that bunker indices may experience moderate growth in the coming week.
Source: By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX