Overall, the global bunker fuel market remained relatively stable through the first half of 2025. In June, prices for all three major bunker fuel grades rose sharply, but this spike was followed by a period of moderate decline in the second half of the year, resulting in a negative full-year performance. By year-end 2025, the 380 HSFO Index had fallen by 132.55 USD/MT (vs. a decline of just 1.96 USD/MT in 2024), the VLSFO Index decreased by 128.27 USD/MT (vs. -54.00 USD/MT in 2024), and the MGO LS Index dropped by 43.43 USD/MT (vs. -125.66 USD/MT in 2024). Accordingly, 2025 was marked by a prevailing downward price trend across the bunker complex. This bearish bias is likely to extend into early 2026 in the absence of clear growth drivers. Potential catalysts for a reversal would primarily be sudden shifts in the geopolitical environment and their impact on energy supply risks and freight dynamics.

Regarding the regional price component of bunker fuel, 2025 saw price declines across all key bunker grades in every major global region. In the 380 HSFO segment, the reduction ranged from 24% to 42%. In the VLSFO segment, prices also decreased in all regions, within a range of -18% to -35%. Similar dynamics—though with a smaller amplitude—were recorded for MGO LS, where prices fell by 5% to 16%. Notably, the only instance of regional price growth in 2025 was observed in the MGO LS segment in South America (+7.8%). The steepest declines were registered as follows: for 380 HSFO, Africa/Middle East (-41.6%); for VLSFO, Africa/Middle East (-35.5%); and for MGO LS, Central America (-15.8%).

Scrubber Spread (SS)

The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (Global SS)—the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—remained consistently below the 100 USD/MT threshold (SS Breakeven) throughout 2025. This benchmark is used to assess the economic viability of consuming VLSFO versus the 380 HSFO + scrubber configuration. Accordingly, the fact that Global SS stayed below 100 USD/MT by year-end confirms the higher economic efficiency and profitability of conventional VLSFO, which currently prevails in the global market. By the end of 2025, Global SS fluctuated within the 79–84 USD/MT range. We expect the global index to retain its current dynamics in early 2026.

Against this background, the Rotterdam SS Spread posted a much sharper decline during the year than the global benchmark, at times falling to 18–20 USD/MT (October 23–27, 2025). Toward year-end, the Rotterdam indicator corrected upward and stabilized around 40–50 USD/MT, while still remaining comfortably below the SS Breakeven threshold.

The Singapore SS Spread demonstrated more stable dynamics and, during certain periods (July–August), even briefly exceeded the SS Breakeven level. It subsequently shifted into a moderate decline and ended the year quoted at 70–85 USD/MT.

Overall, despite SS Spread values remaining consistently below the psychological 100 USD/MT level, the global fleet of scrubber-equipped vessels continues to expand. According to DNV, the total number of vessels with scrubbers installed and under installation stood at 5,469 in 2023, 6,168 in 2024, and reached 6,712 by end-2025. Scrubber adoption remains concentrated among large-tonnage segments, led by bulk carriers (2,318 vessels), tankers (1,851 vessels), and container ships (1,841 vessels).

ECA Spread (ES)

As new Emission Control Areas (ECAs) continue to expand globally—most recently with the Mediterranean ECA (MedECA) coming into force on May 1, 2025—there is growing need to compare prices between the new “conventional” compliant fuel for these zones, ULSFO (0.10% sulfur), and the traditional (and currently most expensive) compliant fuel, MGO LS, in order to assess how regional ECA bunker market structures may evolve.

During the first months of MedECA implementation, the ES index in Istanbul demonstrated pronounced volatility, starting from 0.00 USD/MT in May and rising to 60–80 USD/MT in July–August. A similar pattern was observed in Venice, although the fluctuation range there was materially narrower than in Istanbul. At present, ES levels in both ports have stabilized around the psychological 100 USD/MT mark, with short-term deviations typically within ±20–30 USD/MT. Overall, this maintains a comfortable price differential in favor of ULSFO, supporting further demand growth for this grade within the MedECA zone.

At the same time, tightening emission requirements are driving a structural shift in the segmentation of the regional MedECA bunker market. The share of VLSFO (0.50% sulfur) is gradually losing relevance as a non-compliant fuel within the ECA framework. In contrast, demand for HSFO (viable only in combination with a scrubber) and MGO LS remains stable, and their combined share in the MedECA bunker mix is showing moderate growth. The new MedECA conventional grade—ULSFO—is also confirming its market traction; however, wider expanding is currently constrained by limited supply.

Quality issues with ULSFO do occur—according to VPS data, during the MedECA period 3.5% of samples exceeded ISO specification limits—but these cases appear sporadic and non-critical. Overall, we believe the following structure could take shape in the MedECA bunker market in 2026: MGO LS – 45% (27% in 2024), ULSFO – 25% (1%), HSFO – 25% (26%), VLSFO – 4% (55%).

Alternative Bunker Fuels

In 2025, the TTF gas index maintained a steady downward trend. As a result, the annual decline amounted to -23 EUR/MWh, with prices easing to 28 EUR/MWh by year-end from 51 EUR/MWh at the beginning of the year. This trend exerted a direct bearish impact on LNG bunker prices.

Accordingly, the cost of LNG in ARA fell from 905 USD/MT to 638.50 USD/MT by year-end (a decrease of 266.50 USD/MT). By late December, LNG had nearly converged with MGO LS, trading at a premium of just 38 USD/MT on December 22, 2025. In Sines (Portugal), LNG displayed similar dynamics: prices declined from 976 USD/MT to 729 USD/MT by end-December (down 247 USD/MT). However, LNG there also remained more expensive than MGO LS, at a premium of 56 USD/MT on December 22, 2025.

At present, LNG remains the dominant pathway for shipping’s transition toward alternative bunker fuels. This is largely driven by strong uptake in the container segment, underpinned by a relatively mature LNG bunkering infrastructure and a sustained increase in LNG-fuelled tonnage. According to DNV, the number of LNG-powered vessels (in operation and on order) reached 881 units in 2025, compared to 656 in 2024 and 474 in 2023, underscoring LNG’s growing traction across the maritime sector.

Another rapidly expanding alternative-fuel segment is methanol. According to DNV, 51 new vessels entered service over the past 12 months, bringing the total fleet in operation to 97 vessels. As with LNG, container ships are the core demand driver in this segment, accounting for the majority of both ships already in service and those currently on order.

All other alternative fuels—including ammonia and hydrogen—remain at an early stage of deployment in maritime shipping and, to date, do not represent a material share of the overall alternative bunker fuel market.

MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

(ratio of market bunker prices (MBP Index) to the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP Index))

The first half of 2025 was characterized by an almost 100% correlation between market prices and the digital benchmark, indicating a relatively stable state of the global bunker market. However, from August–September 2025, the prevailing trend in the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) shifted toward a gradual increase in the undervaluation of all bunker grades in Rotterdam and Singapore.

Rotterdam: In the 380 HSFO segment, near-100% MDI correlation was observed during the first half of the year. From August, early signs of undervaluation emerged, developing into a sustained trend from November onward. By year-end, average undervaluation of 380 HSFO in the port ranged at approximately -25 to -50 USD/MT. A broadly similar pattern was recorded in MDI VLSFO and MDI MGO LS: near-complete alignment of market prices with the digital benchmark in H1, followed by a steady build-up of undervaluation in H2. As a result, by the end of the year, average undervaluation levels reached -25 to -45 USD/MT for VLSFO, and -15 to -35 USD/MT for MGO LS.

Singapore: Following a relatively stable first half of 2025 in the 380 HSFO and MGO LS segments, a trend toward undervaluation in these grades also began to take shape from July. However, the year-end discount to the digital benchmark was generally smaller than in Rotterdam. In 380 HSFO, undervaluation averaged around -20 to -40 USD/MT, while in VLSFO it stood at -20 to -45 USD/MT. At the same time, in the MGO LS segment, the MDI remained broadly stable throughout 2025, preserving near-100% correlation between MBP and DBP, with deviations contained within approximately ±10–15 USD/MT.

Based on current global bunker market dynamics, the undervaluation trend is expected to remain prevalent across all key bunker fuel grades in the near term.

Overall, the global bunker market remains relatively stable, supported by a balanced set of fundamental supply-and-demand factors. However, any escalation in geopolitical tensions could trigger short-term upward price spikes in bunker fuels. At the same time, a gradual reconfiguration of regional bunker market segmentation is expected, driven by the expansion of existing Emission Control Areas (ECAs) and the introduction of new ones.

In particular, from March 1, 2026, the Canadian Arctic and the Norwegian Sea are scheduled to be designated as ECA zones, while an ECA in the Northeast Atlantic is expected to enter into force in 2027. As a result, the entire Atlantic coastline of North America and Europe—together with the area between them, including Iceland and Greenland—will effectively form a single, contiguous ECA zone.
In our view, these developments are likely to:
– drive a further gradual decline in demand for VLSFO (0.50% sulfur), and consequently reduce the relative weight of this segment;
– support continued growth in demand for conventional ECA-compliant fuels, primarily MGO LS and ULSFO (0.10% sulfur);
– sustain the HSFO (3.50% sulfur) segment in the medium term, primarily within the HSFO + scrubber consumption model;
– improve the prospects for accelerated infrastructure development and broader adoption of alternative fuels across global shipping.
Source: By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX