Black Sea escalation, Hormuz tension, and rising pressure in the East China Sea. Commercial shipping is navigating another complex week of geopolitical tension, targeted attacks, and evolving regulatory and cyber risk.

In this week’s Maritime Intelligence Brief, Dryad Global analysts track significant developments from the Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz to the East China Sea and beyond – and assess what they mean for shipowners, charterers, operators, and insurers.

This blog offers a high-level snapshot of the analysis. Secure Voyager Hub subscribers can access the full incident breakdown, risk ratings, and operational guidance inside the platform.

Black Sea: deep-strike campaigns hit energy and grain flows

Ukraine continues to extend the range and ambition of its drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure.

On 14 November 2025, Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Novorossiysk port, damaging oil export infrastructure and temporarily halting crude shipments. Shortly afterwards, Russia retaliated with a drone strike on the LPG tanker ORDINA at Ukraine’s Izmail port on the Danube, triggering a fire and the evacuation of a nearby Romanian village. In parallel, Ukraine has again targeted the port of Tuapse, marking the third time this critical facility has been hit in long-range strikes.

Taken together, these incidents:

• Signal a deliberate escalation in Ukraine’s long-range targeting of Russian energy assets
• Increase physical and war-risk exposure for vessels calling at Black Sea and Danube ports
• Threaten key export lanes for Ukrainian grain and Russian oil products

We assess that war-risk premiums in the region are likely to surge towards prohibitive levels for many operators, driving more cargo to the already stretched Danube and overland corridors. The result: higher freight rates, longer transit times, and renewed volatility in global energy and grain markets.

Strait of Hormuz: targeted seizure, strategic signalling

On 14 November 2025, three small Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vessels intercepted the Marshall Islands-flagged oil products tanker TALARA in the Strait of Hormuz and diverted it into Iranian waters. The vessel, carrying high-sulphur gasoil from the UAE to Singapore, is operated by a Cyprus-based company with German and British ownership links.

Iran framed the action through religious rhetoric and as implicit “revenge” for a previous incident involving the tanker MV FALCON off Yemen – a vessel alleged to be part of Iran’s shadow fleet transporting illicit oil.

Key takeaways from this incident:

• It fits a broader pattern of selective, politically messaged seizures rather than indiscriminate disruption
• It reflects Iran’s desire to deter future interdictions of suspected sanctions-evading tonnage
• It underscores the persistent risk to tankers transiting Hormuz, especially where ownership, flag or cargo profile can be leveraged for political signalling

While Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, we assess that a full closure remains highly unlikely due to the severe economic and diplomatic consequences it would trigger for Iran and all regional exporters. However, the TALARA case is a reminder that individual vessels remain at risk of harassment, diversion, or detention.

East China Sea: China turns up the pressure around the Senkakus

In the East China Sea, regional tensions sharpened as Chinese military and coast guard vessels again pushed into disputed waters.

On 16 November 2025, at least four armed China Coast Guard ships entered Japan’s claimed territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands. The move followed recent statements by Japan’s Prime Minister about possible military support in a Taiwan contingency, which Beijing condemned as interference in its internal affairs.

This development:

• Reinforces China’s pattern of “gray-zone” pressure, asserting its Diaoyu claims without crossing into open conflict
• Increases the likelihood of close encounters between Chinese and Japanese assets, with associated collision and escalation risk
• May drive Japan to intensify patrols and deterrence posture in the area

For now, merchant shipping can continue to use established routes, but persistent stand-offs raise the medium-term risk of navigational restrictions, temporary exclusion zones, or re-routing around localized flashpoints.

Beyond the flashpoints: Red Sea, Gulf of Guinea, weather and cyber

While these three theatres dominate the headlines, the wider maritime risk picture remains highly dynamic:

• Red Sea & Bab el-Mandeb: A declared pause in Houthi attacks has eased immediate pressure on shipping, but major carriers such as MSC are still avoiding the Red Sea, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and the risk of sudden re-escalation.
• Gulf of Guinea: Exercise “Grand African Nemo 2025” has strengthened regional maritime security cooperation, even as piracy, robbery, and coastal crime patterns continue to evolve.
• Severe weather: A super typhoon grounding a vessel in the Philippines illustrates how climate-driven extremes can rapidly turn into operational and environmental crises.
• Crime and narco-trafficking: U.S. forces’ 20th strike on a suspected narco-boat and multiple major cocaine seizures underline the scale of illicit flows using commercial maritime routes and port infrastructure.
• Cyber & hybrid threats: Iranian, North Korean, and suspected Chinese state-linked threat actors remain active, using sophisticated spear-phishing, “living off the land” techniques, and abuse of common services to compromise government, defence, and critical-infrastructure targets.
• Health & crew welfare: Ongoing outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya present operational challenges for ports and crews in affected regions, from medical support requirements to potential local restrictions.

Dryad Global’s full Maritime Intelligence Brief brings all of these strands together with region-by-region incident tracking, risk ratings, and scenario-based assessments to support practical voyage and security decisions.

Turn intelligence into action with Secure Voyager Hub

This article only scratches the surface of this week’s developments. Inside Secure Voyager Hub, subscribers can access:

• The full Maritime Intelligence Brief with extended analysis and recommendations
• A live incident map with filtering by threat type, region, and timeframe
• Dynamic risk ratings for ports, anchorages, and sea lanes worldwide
• Integrated voyage planning tools to compare route options against risk and cost
• Cyber and health security updates aligned to operational realities at sea and ashore

Secure Voyager Hub is designed to help shipowners, charterers, operators, and insurers move from fragmented information to clear, actionable insight – on a single screen.
Source: Dryad Global