Finnish military intelligence has warned that Russia is likely to continue attempts to damage critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, keeping NATO countries in the region on heightened alert.

The warning was included in Finland’s annual military intelligence review published this week.

The Finnish Defence Command stated that Russia is expected to persist in efforts to target power cables, telecommunications links and gas pipelines beneath the Baltic Sea.

The assessment comes after a series of infrastructure disruptions reported since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

The Baltic Sea region has experienced several outages involving power cables, telecom connections and gas pipelines in recent years.

The latest incident occurred on New Year’s Eve, when Finnish authorities detained a cargo vessel travelling from Russia to Israel on suspicion of damaging an underwater telecommunications cable. Investigations into the incident are ongoing.

Finland’s Chief of Intelligence, Major General Pekka Turunen, said that Russia has the capability to damage underwater infrastructure if it chooses to do so.

However, he added that no conclusive evidence has been found to directly link Russia or any other state actor to the recent incidents.

Turunen stated that the number of such incidents is unusual and has increased significantly since 2023 compared with previous years. He added that the change in the security situation is real.

Russia has repeatedly denied any involvement in the incidents. Last year, it also conducted military drills in the Baltic Sea, saying the exercises were aimed at defending against possible underwater sabotage.

In response, NATO has increased its military presence in the Baltic Sea over the past year.

The alliance has deployed additional frigates, aircraft and naval drones to strengthen monitoring in the region.

NATO has also stepped up patrols under Operation Baltic Sentinel, although the ability to inspect vessels remains limited under international law.

The Finnish Defence Command’s review also noted an increase in suspicious security-related incidents on Finnish land.

These incidents have been reported around military personnel, facilities and exercises.

According to the Defence Command, some of the rise may be due to increased vigilance and a lower threshold for reporting.

However, it added that there are also signs of genuine intelligence-gathering activities linked to national defence.

Turunen said that some incidents have involved drones and individuals near military sites or exercises.

References: Reuters