Stolt-Nielsen posts 4Q figures next week. Geopolitical uncertainties revolving around Greenland remain, despite President Trump refraining from imposing tariffs on several European nations. Nonetheless, the share price has gained over the month. Resilient business model and stable MR rates should limit the swing tonnage to chemical tanker markets. Thus, we reiterate Buy recommendation at a higher TP of NOK 405 (375).

Weaker second half of 2025 was projected for tankers

We estimate 4Q25 EBITDA of USD 185m, which is in line with the consensus. With our current EBITDA estimates, FY25 EBITDA is USD 767m around the midpoint of the guided range of USD 750-790m. The 4Q25 bottom line of USD 55m is forecasted by us, which is again, along with other estimates, quite similar to the broad market consensus. Generally, 4Q25 is expected to be lot of softer compared to the same quarter last year. However, the figures are still seemingly healthy in the environment the company operates in.

The geopolitical noise seems to ease

As the year begins, the geopolitical situation surrounding Greenland’s sovereignty dispute is expecting to cool down, as President Trump refrains from imposing tariffs on several European countries. However, it is still difficult to foresee how the deal regarding Greenland would be reached, nor what else could Trump propose to “win” over the Europe. During uncertain times like these, the historical data imply that the chemical tanker segment remains resilient. In addition, stable MR rates should limit the swing into the chemicals market.

The company stands strong despite the uncertainty

We believe the stock is capable to continue its performance, due to the nature of company’s business model, which provides resilience in the times of uncertainty. In addition, stable MR rates lend support to the chemical tanker market. We reiterate Buy recommendation at a higher TP of 405/sh.

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Source: Norne Research