A newly announced trade agreement between the United States and India could significantly reshape global crude oil flows and tanker demand, potentially cutting Russian seaborne oil exports by as much as 25 percent while shifting volumes back toward traditional trade routes, according to BIMCO.

The deal, announced Monday by U.S. President Donald Trump, would lower U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18 percent from 50 percent in exchange for India halting purchases of Russian oil and committing to buy more than $500 billion worth of U.S. energy and other products in the coming years.

BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen said the implications for maritime trade could be substantial. In 2025, India accounted for roughly one-third of its seaborne oil imports from Russia—representing about 25 percent of Russia’s total seaborne crude exports.

“A new trade agreement between the U.S. and India could, according to President Trump, put an end to that trade,” Rasmussen said.

The announcement comes as Russia–India oil flows were already weakening. During the first five weeks of 2026, Russian oil exports to India fell 34 percent year-on-year, a decline Rasmussen attributed in part to new EU restrictions on the purchase, import, and transfer of oil products refined from Russian crude.

For tanker markets, the shift could be meaningful. In 2025, Russia–India shipments accounted for about 0.5 percent of tonne-miles in the clean tanker market and 4.7 percent in the dirty tanker segment, according to BIMCO. A sharp reduction would disproportionately affect dirty tankers, while potentially allowing mainstream vessels to recapture demand currently served by the parallel fleet carrying Russian cargoes.

India is expected to replace Russian barrels largely by turning back to traditional suppliers. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as much as two-thirds of India’s crude and oil product imports came from the Persian Gulf. By 2025, that share had dropped to 45 percent. With Russian volumes potentially coming off the market, imports from the Gulf are likely to rise again, alongside increased purchases from the United States—and possibly Venezuela, according to Trump.

Still, major uncertainties remain. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has welcomed the agreement as beneficial for India’s 1.4 billion people, but has yet to confirm key details, including timelines for halting Russian oil purchases or whether India will fully eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods.

India has already been reducing its reliance on Russian crude, with imports falling from around 1.2 million barrels per day in January to a projected 800,000 barrels per day by March. The trade deal could accelerate that trend, though Rasmussen cautioned against expecting a proportional collapse in Russian exports.

“We do not expect Russian oil exports to fall by the same amount,” Rasmussen said, noting that Moscow is likely to seek alternative buyers, even if that requires offering steeper discounts.

The agreement follows a recent EU–India trade deal and underscores the continued realignment of global energy trade since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine disrupted long-established supply chains.

For vessel owners and charterers, the coming months are likely to bring increased volatility as India adjusts its sourcing and Russia looks for new outlets—creating both displacement risks and fresh opportunities across tanker markets and trade routes.