Dutch and British gas prices on Friday morning rose off an 18-month low hit a day earlier, as temperatures are forecast to fall sharply next week, increasing energy demand that should also see a step up in gas storage withdrawals.

The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub (TRNLTTFMc1) was up 0.17 euro at 30.65 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or $10.46/mmBtu, by 0919 GMT, LSEG data showed.

The Dutch day-ahead contract (TRNLTTFD1) was up 0.81 euro at 30.70 euros/MWh.

On Thursday, both contracts hit their lowest since May 2024 as plentiful liquefied natural gas supply and recent mild weather offset low storage levels year-on-year.

The British day-ahead gas price (TRGBNBPD1) was up 11.00 pence at 79.50 pence per therm, while the weekend contract (TRGBNBPWE) gained 0.50 pence to 72.50 p/therm.

“Going forward we will see the expected demand rise taking the first big step on Monday,” said LSEG analyst Ulrich Weber.

Temperatures are set to drop by an average of more than 5 degrees Celsius by Monday, with northwest European local distribution zone (LDZ) consumption, which largely reflects heating demand, to rise by 1,105 gigawatt hours (GWh) per day.

This morning’s forecast is also suggesting a slightly longer and deeper cold period next week, while the rise in demand will also see a greater withdrawal of gas from storage, Weber said.
EU gas storage sites were last 82.23% full, compared with 92.58% at the same time last year, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed.

The European market is finely balanced for this winter and risks seem predominantly to the upside, analysts at Energy Aspects said in a weekly note, adding weather deviations are still the key uncertainty for TTF prices.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract (CFI2Zc1) was down 0.16 euro at 81.18 euros a metric ton.
Source: Reuters