Feb. 24 marks four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a brutal conflict that has had a profound impact on oil prices, crude trade flows, sanctions policy and energy security.

Hopes of an end to the war rose in early 2026, with US President Donald Trump pushing for a peace deal, but even if an agreement is reached, some of the changes triggered by the invasion will be hard to reverse and are likely to have a lasting impact on oil markets.

Oil prices responded immediately to the start of the invasion, with Russian crude trading at significant discounts ever since. Platts assessed Russia’s key crude grade Urals at a maximum post-war discount to Dated Brent of almost $43/b in mid-April 2022. Discounts have narrowed since then, with Platts assessing Urals at a discount of $30/b to Dated Brent on Feb. 19.

Discounts have tracked sanctions announcements and developments on the battlefield, and could narrow in the event of a peace deal.

“If there is a deal that ends the Russia-Ukraine war — and sanctions are eventually removed — it will raise the price of Russian crude relative to global benchmarks, but won’t lead to higher export volumes, at least not right away,” said Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of research for oil markets at S&P Global Energy CERA.

Trade flows
These discounts, as well as sanctions imposed by Russia’s traditional customers in Europe, have reconfigured trade flows.

Non-sanctioning Asian countries, particularly China and India, have taken many of the barrels that used to flow into Europe.

Maritime deliveries of Russian crude to China leapt from 637,000 b/d in 2021 to 1.028 million b/d in 2025, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea. Seaborne deliveries to India rose from 45,000 b/d in 2021 to 1.585 million b/d last year.

These flows are threatened by recent sanctions that target Russia’s biggest exporters Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as EU restrictions on importing oil products made from Russian crude.

Seaborne deliveries to India fell sharply in January, down 55.2% on the month to 505,400 b/d, according to CAS data. Seaborne shipments to China dropped 36.6% month on month in January to 873,800 b/d.

Sanctions pressure
Waves of sanctions have been imposed on the Russian oil sector, as Ukraine’s allies aim to damage a key source of the Kremlin’s revenue.

Restrictions have been introduced gradually, in a bid to avoid oil supply and price shocks and allow consumers to source alternative supplies.

Current sanctions target Russia’s biggest oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, and the EU, G7 and Australia have implemented price caps on Russian crude and oil products.

The EU has banned imports of seaborne Russian crude and oil products, as well as oil products made from Russian crude in other countries.

There are restrictions on the transfer of equipment and technology used for oil production and processing, and several oil industry officials have been personally sanctioned.

EU countries still importing Russian oil plan to submit diversification plans by March 2026, although a full import ban has yet to be enacted.

A peace deal could see some sanctions pressure eased, but is unlikely to result in European countries lifting all restrictions on Russian oil and flows returning to pre-war levels.

Attacks impact
Oil flows have also been affected by attacks, particularly from drones. Platts reporters have tracked over 230 attacks on oil infrastructure since the war began, with Ukraine’s policy of targeting Russian refining and export infrastructure having a significant impact.

Analysts at CERA estimate that 7% of Russia’s refining capacity was offline as of late January, down from as high as 20% at the end of October 2025.

Strikes on energy infrastructure, which also include Russian bombardment of Ukraine’s power network, have been a key talking point in peace negotiations, but a lasting energy ceasefire has proved elusive.

On Jan. 29, Trump said that Russia had committed to a week-long pause in attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, but attacks resumed weeks later.

This followed a previous energy ceasefire in March 2025, which held for around four months, before breaking down amid accusations from both sides that the other had violated the agreement.

A peace deal would ease security pressure on energy companies, but the sector’s vulnerability to attack has been exposed, and protecting infrastructure from hostile actors will continue to be a concern for years to come.
Source: Platts