The latest edition of Westwood’s Global Land Drilling Rig Outlook anticipates rig demand to average 4,219 rigs between 2026 and 2030, a 4% increase on the 2021-2025 period. Year-on-year growth is expected over the forecast, reaching 4,332 active rigs by 2030, up 5% on 2025. The relatively muted outlook is underpinned by an oil price assumption that ranges between $60-$80, as well as continued advancements in drilling efficiency and cost-consciousness among operators.

Global demand is forecast to be led by Asia Pacific with an average demand of 1,347 rigs (32% of total). China is expected to remain the largest country globally for rig demand, as it was in the hindcast. Eastern Europe, whose demand outlook is driven by Russia, follows with 1,094 rigs (26%). This represents a 12% decline from 1,238 in the hindcast, reflecting an expected year-on-year decline in Russian drilling activity over the forecast period.

There is a change in the third-largest region for rig demand, with MENA forecast to overtake North America, representing 20% of total demand, with 834 rigs, up 46% from the hindcast. North America itself is expected to remain relatively flat with demand of 754 rigs on average, 18% of global demand.

This growth in the MENA region is due to an expected reduction in OPEC+ cuts and the need to meet domestic production targets for both oil and gas, via major expansion in unconventional drilling, in both Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The rise in regional rig demand will be led by the major onshore drillers in the GCC (Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE), but other countries such as Iraq, Libya and Turkey are also expected to see activity far above hindcast levels. With this rise in demand, especially for high HP rigs, there is a risk of undersupply in several key countries, prompting major rig construction campaigns across the region. A key example is the ongoing 50-rig construction campaign being undertaken in Saudi Arabia by Arabian Rig Manufacturing for SANAD, all of which will be high HP units.

Westwood’s Global Land Drilling Rig Outlook provides a breakdown of supply and demand by low HP (< 1,500 HP) and high HP (> 1,500 HP). This breakdown highlights the contrasting fortunes of these two rig types, with high HP units expected to continue growing in demand over the forecast period as operators increasingly drill deeper, more complex wells. Overall, high HP rig demand is expected to average 2,827 rigs, a 10% increase on the hindcast average, whilst low HP rig demand is forecast to fall to 1,392 units, a 6% decline on the hindcast. Utilisation for high HP units is expected to rise, averaging 63%, up 5% on the hindcast, despite a 2% rise in supply somewhat counterbalancing the increase in demand. In comparison, low HP utilisation is expected to drop from 33% to 32% on average, despite supply averaging 3% lower than in the hindcast

The report presents Westwood’s in-depth outlook for the global land drilling rig market over the 2026-2030 period, with a focus on addressing the following key questions:

• What macro fundamentals are driving rig demand and utilisation on both a global and country level scale?
• What is the volume of operational rigs and utilisation across different regions and countries?
• What, if any, divergence is there between low HP and high HP demand and supply?
• What countries are expected to see the largest growth over the forecast?
• What factors are worth highlighting – basins, plays, E&P companies, national production targets?
• What is the competitive landscape – rig contractors, their fleet size and horsepower distribution?
  Source: Westwood’s Global Energy Group