US heating oil futures drifted toward $2.38 per gallon after a volatile week, with milder temperature forecasts across key US heating regions trimming demand expectations.

Reduced heating burn has offset what remains a seasonally tight supply backdrop, even after EIA data showed a sharp draw of roughly 5.6m barrels in distillate inventories alongside a 3.5m-barrel decline in crude stocks.

Elevated refinery runs have eased supply concerns, as refiners sustained strong output of heating oil and diesel and kept product flows into export markets steady.

At the same time, lower crude feedstock costs capped upside, with oil benchmarks mixed as US–Iran talks in Oman alternately eased and revived geopolitical risk premia.

Adding to demand pressure, cheaper natural gas has become a more competitive heating substitute, while rising US gas drilling activity, particularly in the Haynesville, signalled higher future supply and reinforced a broader headwind for heating fuels.
Source: Trading Economics