India’s crude throughput in the third quarter is expected to decline from previous robust levels due to the monsoon impacting transport fuel demand, but a rebound is expected in Q4 driven by festival demand, refining sources and analysts said.

India’s crude runs in the first five months of the year have surged compared to the same period in 2024, driven by HPCL’s Vizag refinery, which achieved over 100% utilization following the commissioning of new units, while Panipat and Paradip refineries led Indian Oil Corp.’s throughput growth, compensating for declines at other IOC facilities.

According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights and the oil ministry, Indian refiners processed 5.49 million b/d of crude oil in January-May 2025, a growth of more than 2% from 5.37 million b/d processed in the same period a year earlier.

“Looking forward, crude runs are expected to stay lower, driven by the seasonally low period during the monsoon. However, we expect a rise in crude throughput in Q4, supported by the rise in exports,” said Abhishek Ranjan, South Asia oil research lead at Commodity Insights.

Runs remain above 100%
According to provisional oil ministry data, combined run rates across all Indian refineries — including state-run and private refiners — averaged 106% in May, more or less unchanged from 105.6% in the same month a year earlier.

In the April-May period — the first two months of the fiscal year 2025-26 (April-March) — combined refinery runs stood at 105%, compared to 104% a year earlier, reflecting the absence of any major maintenance shutdowns since the start of the new fiscal year.

In May, state-run refineries — including IOC, BPCL and HPCL — recorded combined run rates of 108%, compared with 109% a year earlier.

IOC recorded 107% runs in May compared with 102% a year earlier. In the April-May period, IOC’s runs averaged 106% compared with 104% a year earlier. BPCL recorded 117% runs in May compared with 115% a year earlier. For April-May, BPCL ran at 117% runs, unchanged year over year.

HPCL recorded 103% runs in May compared with 110% a year earlier. For the April-May period, HPCL recorded 110% runs compared with 93% a year earlier.

Private refiners, including Reliance and Nayara, recorded a combined run rate of 102% in May, up from 100% a year earlier, with April-May runs falling to 96% compared with 100% a year earlier.

In May, Reliance — the biggest private refiner — ran at 100% compared with 97% a year earlier, while April-May runs averaged 92% compared with 96% in the same period of 2024. Nayara recorded runs at 104% in May compared with 102% a year ago, and 103% in April-May, steady year over year.

“The monsoon season is in full swing now. In July and August, we could possibly see runs slowing down but then again picking up in the following months as the festival season approaches,” said a senior Indian refining source.

Steady imports, throughput schedule
India recorded a 3.2% year over year decline in crude imports to 32.3 million mt (5 million b/d) in May, the oil ministry’s latest provisional update showed, reflecting the impact of India-Pakistan war during the first half of May, as many ports on the west coast were closed for a brief period.

In the January-May period, India imported 105.65 million mt, up 1.5% year over year.

Sources said import volumes were finding support from robust domestic demand for oil products as well as overseas demand for its oil products, prompting refiners to keep runs high.

In May, India’s domestic demand stood at 21.32 million mt, up 1.1% year over year and 5.7% month over month. India also exported 5.6 million mt of oil products in May, up 7% year over year and 39% month over month, mainly to the European Union.

Refining sources said India’s oil imports in June could be marginally impacted by the Iran-Israel conflict, as only around 40% of crude imports come through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Crude flows have remained steady and have come in as per schedule even during the turbulent period which we witnessed recently in the Middle East. Therefore, the availability of crude for refiners has not been a concern at all,” said a senior government source.

According to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab), Russia retained the position as India’s top crude supplier in January-June with shipments of 1.67 million b/d, up marginally from 1.66 million b/d in the same period a year earlier. India imported 271,000 b/d of crude oil from the US in the year’s first half, up around 51% from 180,000 b/d imported in the same period in 2024.

A few years ago, India used to source more than 60% of its crude from the Middle East. Now, it’s less than 45%. This diversification is anticipated to provide resilience in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, sources added.
Source: Platts