In 2025, liquids supply from non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) countries is estimated to have increased by around 1.0 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y), to average 54.2 mb/d. The US accounted for the bulk of this increase, adding roughly 0.5 mb/d, y-o-y, driven by higher output from non-conventional NGLs and tight oil, as well as gains in the Gulf of Mexico. Tight oil alone expanded by 0.2 mb/d, almost entirely from the Permian Basin, supported by longer laterals and continued drilling and completion efficiency improvements. Other major US tight oil basins saw slight y-o-y declines. NGLs production increased by about 0.3 mb/d to an average of 7.2 mb/d, representing around 4% growth, y-o-y. In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina led gains, lifting regional output by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y.

Canadian liquids supply rose by around 0.1 mb/d, supported by oil sands expansions and modest NGLs growth. China also contributed to incremental supply. Conversely, several producers experienced declines, with Angola recording the largest drop. It is worth noting that in 2025, the US oil rig count averaged 444, representing a decline of 47 rigs, y-o-y, with nearly 70% of those rigs operating in the Permian Basin. Despite this, upstream operators continued to post steady gains in drilling and completion efficiency, largely offsetting the lower rig activity. In the near term, only moderate further efficiency improvements are expected in the near term, supported by longer laterals, faster drilling, enhanced well performance, and increasingly sophisticated completion techniques.

On the investment front, capital spending for oil exploration and production (E&P) in non-DoC countries in 2025 dropped by about $8 billion, y-o-y, for a total of $281 bn. This spending is expected to further decline by around 5%, y-o-y, in 2026 to around $268 bn. However, a modest rebound of roughly 1% is forecast for 2027, lifting non-DoC upstream liquids spending to around $271 bn. In the US alone, upstream E&P liquids investment is estimated to have fallen by 7%, y-o-y, in 2025 to about $112 bn, with a further decline of about 12% expected in 2026. A mild 4% uptick is anticipated in 2027. Overall, the near-term trajectory for non-DoC upstream liquids capex remains broadly stable, with fluctuations relatively minor.

With this, the non-DoC liquids supply is projected to increase by around 0.6 mb/d in 2026 to average 54.8 mb/d. Liquids output in the OECD (excluding Mexico) is expected to rise by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y, driven mainly by higher US and Canada production. In the US, crude and condensate output is forecast to decline by roughly 80 tb/d, y-o-y, while NGLs and biofuels are set to expand by a combined 230 tb/d. Canada’s liquids supply, particularly from oil sands operations, is set to expand by about 110 tb/d, y-o-y. In Europe, North Sea production is projected to remain largely steady. In the non-OECD (excluding DoC countries), liquids output is anticipated to rise by roughly 350 tb/d, y-o-y. Latin America is set to be the main growth driver, with regional supply expected to increase by about 560 tb/d. This is supported by multiple offshore ramp-ups and startups in key producing countries, alongside additional tight oil gains in Argentina.

In 2027, non-DoC liquids supply is projected to rise by a further 0.6 mb/d, to average 55.4 mb/d. OECD (excluding Mexico) liquids production is expected to increase by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, with the US and Canada together accounting for roughly 160 tb/d of growth. In the US, crude and condensate output is forecast to decline by about 110 tb/d, y-o-y, while NGLs production is set to remain robust, increasing by around 180 tb/d, supported by higher associated gas volumes and stronger domestic gas market fundamentals. Non-OECD (excluding DoC countries) liquids supply is forecast to grow by around 0.5 mb/d, y-o-y, with Latin America set to remain the primary growth engine, accounting for roughly 72% of the region’s liquids supply expansion.
Source: OPEC