National Gas, the operator of Britain’s National Transmission System, published its 2026 Gas Summer Outlook on Tuesday, concluding that the country is expected to have sufficient gas supply to meet forecast demand over the summer months under current conditions.

Total gas demand for summer 2026 is comparable to summer 2025, with gas demand for power generation forecast to fall by around 6%, partially offset by a 2% increase in domestic demand.

Summer demand is expected to be met primarily by UK Continental Shelf and Norwegian supplies, together accounting for around 86% of total supply at 25.3 billion cubic meters, exceeding forecast demand across Great Britain and exports to Ireland of around 21.2 billion cubic meters.

The remaining supply is expected to be met through a combination of Great Britain’s flexible gas storage, accounting for around 5% of total supply at 1.5 billion cubic meters, and liquefied natural gas imports, which are forecast to account for around 9% of total supply at 2.7 billion cubic meters.

A programme of summer maintenance is planned, including the isolation of 460 miles of pipeline and outages across all compressor sites, to prepare the network for winter 2026/27.

The forecast was prepared ahead of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. National Gas has since reviewed its analysis, concluding that the market is expected to still have sufficient capacity and capability to meet forecast demand.

This reflects lower seasonal demand during the summer months and the diversity of gas supply sources available to Great Britain, including domestic production, Norway, LNG and storage.

“While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer,” said Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, Director of Energy Systems and Resilience at National Gas.

Great Britain is expected to export gas to continental Europe over the summer, with forecasts broadly in line with last year.
Source: Investing.com