The NWE-TTF spread flipped to a premium March 2, as the Middle East conflict disrupted LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz.

Platts assessed the DES Northwest European marker for April at $15.479/MMBtu on March 2, a premium of $0.50/MMBtu to the April TTF hub price.

NWE-TTF last moved into the positive zone on June 29, 2024. The spread was assessed at 0.5 cents/MMBtu on the day amid a weakened arbitrage incentive between Asia and Europe.

Besides shippers avoiding the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East conflict, QatarEnergy suspended LNG production due to military attacks on its facilities, the company said March 2.
“The market is very quiet, everyone is projecting the paper market and leveraging physical assets, the extrinsic value is very high,” said a Europe-based trading source.

In the European market, NWE LNG is usually at a discount to TTF gas hub prices. The price differential between the two forms of commodity initially covers the cost of regasification.

If the NWE-TTF spread is flat, it implies a lack of incentive to buy LNG and sell as gas into Europe, as the room for profit is largely gone.

“You would usually want NWE to be at a discount to cover those variable costs of regas, unloading, storage but the way it’s rallied today, you could lose a lot of money having regas capacity in Europe,” another Europe-based trader said.

For ports with high terminal costs, such as Greece’s Alexandroupolis and most of the floating storage and regasification units in Germany, competitiveness would be limited as terminal costs could reach $1/MMBtu, according to S&P Global Energy CERA data.

Some market participants reported that given the extreme uncertainty surrounding discounts to TTF, some players were seeking deals based on fixed prices.

“Hearing people are looking for a fixed price,” an Atlantic-based trader said.

With DES NWE at a premium to TTF, players with regas capacity could be susceptible to a burden of costs, traders said. With most regas costs in Northwest Europe being around 30 to 40 cents/MMBtu, if a buyer in NWE were to trade a cargo at parity to TTF then they would have to pay around an additional 30 to 40 cents/MMBtu on top of the cargo.

“When you get regas capacity, you fix the costs of your LNG, but if LNG goes above that, you have basically fixed how much money you are losing,” a third trader said.

Another trader added: “if you consider, say, a terminal like Montoir, where the regas costs are nearly 40 cents, then the [NWE-TTF] spread moving to flat today, means that anyone buying into Montoir would lose nearly 40 cents, you would be haemorrhaging money buying a cargo unless you really need it.”

Summer injection season

The lack of incentive to buy LNG and sell to gas in Europe could affect injections into European gas storage. Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory data showed EU gas stocks at 29.98% full as of Feb 28.

“There is going to be a real scramble to refill, it’s going to get really messy…It’s like 2022 all over again,” said an Atlantic-based gas trader.

LNG exporters in the Middle East have shipped 18.29 million metric tons so far this year, with Qatar the largest exporter, sending 15.13 million mt. Oman and the United Arab Emirates followed with 2.2 and 0.96 million mt, according to shipping data from CERA as of March 2.

Most of the Middle East volumes go to Asia, with China and India accounting for 35% of 2026 total to date. In Europe, Italy was the largest importer from Qatar, taking 4.87 million mt of LNG in 2025 and 63,000 mt in 2026 so far, CERA data showed.

Shipping disruption

There were around 18 ballast vessels waiting outside the Gulf of Oman, MINT data showed as of March 2.

These vessels had already made their deliveries and were supposed to head back to the loading ports. No shipments have passed through the Gulf of Oman since Feb. 27, the data showed.

The last loaded vessel that was sent from Oman’s Qalhat LNG Terminal was LNG Endurance, currently pointing to Korea’s Incheon.

Moreover, 11 laden vessels were anchored outside Doha for at least a day, according to MINT shipping data as of March 2. The vessels have an indicative destinations in Asia, including Japan and India.

The ship data suggests some 8 million mt of LNG is being kept in the Persian Gulf.

The shipping disruption has tightened the prompt LNG market, according to trading sources.

Although those volumes were potentially destined for Asia, it could intensify the regional cargo competition between Asia and the European market.

Platts assessed JKM, the benchmark price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, for April at $15.068/MMBtu, up $4.371, or 40.86% day over day.

“For so long, Asian traders have been so bearish,” said one Atlantic-based gas trader, noting the dramatic shift in sentiment across the basin.
Source: Platts