Oil prices rose in early trade on Friday on uncertainty over a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks, with the two countries remaining at odds over Tehran’s uranium stockpile and controls on the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent climbs towards $105/barrel but still down more than 4% since start of week
Iran’s stand on uranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz control dampens hopes of deal with US
Iran, Oman discuss possible permanent toll system at Hormuz

At 01:00 GMT, US WTI increased by 1.6%, while Brent crude was up by 2.1%.

US state secretary Marco Rubio said there had been “some good signs” in talks with Iran, but that any toll system in the Strait of Hormuz would be unacceptable.

“Iran appears to be insisting on retaining its uranium stockpile domestically, while also proposing a toll system for transit through the Hormuz strait. It remains unclear whether a breakthrough is imminent,” said Japan’s MUFG Research analyst Lloyd Chan.

The rebound on Friday followed three days of declines as statements by Iran on uranium and the Strait of Hormuz pared earlier optimism over progress in the negotiations.

Conflicting statements on key issues raise doubts over possibility of a deal between the US and Iran amid renewed threats of war escalation in recent days, buffeting oil prices as traders try to estimate when energy flows through the strait will fully resume.

The Strait of Homuz is a chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil supply.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei was to have issued a directive stating that enriched uranium must stay in Iran, a key point of contention for the US during peace talks, according to newswire agency Reuters, citing senior Iranian sources.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested that the war will not be considered over until uranium is removed from Iran, heightening concerns that the war could be further away from resolution than previously thought and that the Strait of Hormuz may remain closed for longer.

International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol warned that the oil market could enter a “red-zone”, in which supply tightness becomes severe this summer as fuel demand peaks and global oil inventories are drained.

UAE state-oil company ADNOC head Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber on 21 May said that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal until either Q1 or Q2 2027, even if the conflict ended now.

ICIS head of oil markets Ajay Parmar said: “Our view is that if the Strait is reopened in late-June, crude, oil products and petrochemical markets will only see a return to some form of normality by early 2027.”

“As such, we expect to see additional elevated crude and oil products prices for at least the rest of this year.”

Capping oil price gains on Friday were reports that OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) which include Russia could agree to an output hike of 188,000 barrels/day at its next meeting on June 7.

Increased crude production could come from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman, although Middle Eastern producers like Kuwait could struggle to increase oil production and exports with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively shut.
Source: By Nurluqman Suratman, ICIS, https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/05/22/11210342/oil-rises-on-us-iran-deal-uncertainty-brent-crude-up-by-more-than-2-bbl/