Crude Oil Price Movements

In November, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by 74¢/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $64.46/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped in November by 29¢/b, m-o-m, to average $63.66/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by 59¢/b, m-o-m, to average $59.48/b. The GME Oman front-month contract dropped by 41¢/b, m-o-m, in November, to average $64.53/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread averaged $4.18/b in November, up by 30¢/b, m-o-m. The backwardation structures of ICE Brent and GME Oman futures contracts were little changed, m-o-m, in November. This indicates that, despite speculative activity in the futures market, near-term physical crude market fundamentals remained supportive, amid relatively low OECD stock levels. The forward curve of NYMEX WTI flattened, m-o-m, with the nearest time spread narrowing. Hedge funds and other money managers maintained a broadly bearish stance in November, reinforcing downward pressure on the oil futures complex.

World Economy

The global economy is forecast to continue its steady expansion, supported by solid performance seen so far this year. The global economic growth forecast for 2025 is revised up slightly to 3.1%, while for 2026 it remains unchanged at 3.1%. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 1.8% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026. Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.1% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026. Eurozone economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 1.2% for both 2025 and 2026. China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.8% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026. India’s prospects have improved, with economic growth forecasts revised up to 6.7% for 2025 and 6.6% for 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecast remains at 2.3% for 2025, while 2026 is lowered slightly to 2.0%. Meanwhile, Russia’s growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are revised down slightly to 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively.

World Oil Demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. In the OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.2 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply

Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 1.0 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, revised up slightly from last month’s assessment. The revision is only about 50 tb/d, mainly to accommodate for seasonality and data received so far for 4Q25. The main growth drivers for 2025 are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2026 remains at 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.6 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 43 tb/d in November, m-o-m, to average about 43.06 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

Product Markets and Refining Operations

In November, refining margins rose across all regions, adding to the gains registered in the previous month. This came amid rising refinery processing rates as refiners resumed normal operations. Key product inventories remained below the historic average, pointing to persistent tightness. Moreover, geopolitical constraints and unplanned refinery outages in Europe continued to impact product supplies from the region, leading to upward pressure on refining economics. Global refinery intakes increased by about 1.3 mb/d, m-o-m, to 81.5 mb/d in November.

Tanker Market

Dirty tanker spot freight rates showed further strength in November, supported by seasonal factors and an uptick in demand for mainstream vessels. VLCC spot freight rates led gains, driven by increased demand on long-haul routes. Spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose by 34%, m-o-m, while rates on the Middle East-to-West route were up by 30%, m-o-m. Activities in the Suezmax market increased for the fourthconsecutive month, supported by a spill over from an active VLCC market. Rates on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) to Europe route rose by 24%, m-o-m. Aframax spot freight rates also saw further gains, with cross-Med spot freight rates up by 12%, m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, as refineries came back online with the end of the maintenance season and long-haul demand increased. Rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose by 22%, m-o-m, while rates around the Mediterranean were up by 37%, m-o-m.

Crude and Refined Product Trade

In November, US crude imports recovered from the strong decline seen the month before to average 5.9 mb/d, while crude exports dropped from an eight-month high to an average of 3.5 mb/d. Product imports into the US remained close to last year’s levels, averaging 1.6 mb/d, while product exports reached a preliminary estimate of 7.4 mb/d. In the OECD Europe region, crude imports declined m-o-m in October due to sharply lower arrivals from the US. Product imports into OECD Europe fell below the five-year average due to a decrease in fuel oil imports. Japan’s crude imports picked up further in October, averaging 2.4 mb/d. Product exports from Japan moved above the five-year range on firm regional demand. China’s crude imports remained strong in October, averaging 11.4 mb/d, around 8% higher y-o-y. China’s product imports declined on lower inflows of LPG, naphtha, and fuel oil, while product exports were constrained at just below the five-year average. India’s crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.0 mb/d in October, while its product exports declined by about 20%, m-o-m, mainly due to a drop in diesel exports.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary October 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories dropped by 32 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,833 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 62.7 mb higher than at the same time last year, but 12.4 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 112.7 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 12.9 mb, while product stocks dropped by 44.9 mb m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,340 mb. This was 22.3 mb higher than a year ago, but 29.7 mb below the latest five-year average, and 113.3 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at
1,492 mb. This is 40.4 mb higher than a year ago, 17.3 mb above the latest five-year average, and 0.5 mb higher than the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days, m-o-m, in October, to stand at 61.8 days. This is 1.1 days higher than a year ago, but 1.6 days lower than the latest five-year average, and 0.5 days lower than the average for the 2015–2019 period.

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 42.4 mb/d in 2025. This represents an increase of 0.3 mb/d compared to the 2024 estimate. The demand for DoC crude in 2026 also remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 43.0 mb/d, about 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2025 forecast.
Source: OPEC