Crude Oil Price Movements

In October, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $5.19/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $65.20/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped in October by $3.63/b, m-o-m, to average $63.95/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by $3.46/b, m-o-m, to average $60.07/b. The GME Oman front-month contract dropped in October by $5.09/b, m-o-m, to average at $64.95/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread averaged $3.88/b in October, down by 17¢/b, m-o-m. The market structure of
all three crude benchmarks ─ ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman ─ weakened further in October. However, the front end of the forward curves remained in backwardation, reflecting healthy physical oil market fundamentals. Hedge funds and other money managers maintained a bearish stance on crude oil futures for most of the month of October.

World Economy

The global economy is expected to maintain its stable growth trajectory, supported by the momentum observed so far this year. The global economic growth forecasts remain at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, both unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 1.8% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026. Japan’s economic growth forecast is revised up to 1.1% for 2025 and remains at 0.9% for 2026. The Eurozone economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2025 and 2026. China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.8% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.5% for both 2025 and 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026. Russia’s economic growth forecast for 2025 is revised down slightly to 1.6%, but remains at 1.5% for 2026.

World Oil Demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. In the OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply

Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.9 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, revised up slightly by around 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment, mainly due to received historical data in 2025. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2026 remains at 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, with Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.6 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 73 tb/d in October, m-o-m, to average about 43.02 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

Product Markets and Refining Operations

In October, refining margins improved across regions, with gains driven primarily by middle distillates, amid lower refinery processing rates due to heavy turnarounds, and lower crude prices. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), tighter product balances led to considerable gains for the middle and bottom sections of the barrel. In Rotterdam, margins exhibited the softest m-o-m increase compared to the other reported trading hubs, as gains in jet/kerosene and high-sulphur fuel oil offset losses in gasoline, naphtha, and low-sulphur fuel oil. A contraction in product availability, along with concerns about the impact of sanctions on product flows, contributed to the upward pressure in Northwest refining margins. In Singapore, subdued Chinese product exports and key refinery outages in the Middle East and India contributed to sizeable strength across the barrel in Southeast Asia. Global refinery intakes declined by about 1.7 mb/d, m-o-m, to stand at 80.2 mb/d in October, however, this remains about 781 tb/d higher, y-o-y.

Tanker Market

Dirty tanker spot freight rates moved higher across the board in October. VLCC spot freight rates showed further gains, building on the previous month’s surge in rates. Gains were driven by higher demand for long-haul routes. VLCC spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose by 3%, m-o-m, while rates on the Middle East-to-West route were 6% higher over the same period. Activities in the Suezmax market rose, supported by higher flows from Russia and the Middle East. Rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route increased 14%, m-o-m. Aframax spot freight rates rebounded amid higher flows from Europe and Russia. Cross-Med spot freight rates rose 31%, m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates declined on all monitored routes. Rates on the Middle East-to-East route fell by 15%, m-o-m, while rates around the Mediterranean dropped by about 1%, m-o-m.

Crude and Refined Product Trade

In October, US crude imports fell to 5.6 mb/d, while crude exports from the US reached an eight-month high of 4.2 mb/d. US product imports fell back from the strong performances seen in the previous two months to average 1.6 mb/d, while product exports edged up to just under 7 mb/d amid higher outflows of gasoline. OECD Europe crude imports rose, m-o-m, in September on higher flows from the US, which offset declines from Russia. Product imports into the region were broadly flat, m-o-m, with gains in LPG and fuel oil offsetting declines in jet fuel imports. Japan’s crude imports picked up further in September in line with seasonal trends to average 2.4 mb/d. Japan’s product flows moved seasonally, with imports falling, m-o-m, on lower outflows of LPG, and exports edging higher, supported by gasoline. China’s crude imports in September averaged 11.5 mb/d, down about 1%, m-o-m, but around 4% higher y-o-y. China’s product imports, including LPG, rose by over 7%, m-o-m, amid higher inflows of fuel oil, which is a key feedstock for independent refiners. Product exports from China edged 2% lower, m-o-m, as limited export quotas for clean products resulted in declines in diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. India’s crude imports saw further gains in September, moving above the five-year range to average 4.9 mb/d. India’s product imports increased by over 8%, m-o-m, to reach a 10-month high, boosted by fuel oil, while exports rose by 12%, m-o-m, to a 12-month high amid increased flows to Europe and the Middle East.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary September 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 6.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 37.7 mb higher than the same time last year, but 22.4 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 122.3 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude and product stocks increased by 1.0 mb and 5.0 mb, m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,331 mb. This was 21.3 mb higher than a year ago, but 29.6 mb below the latest five-year average, and 103.9 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,513 mb. This is 16.4 mb higher than a year ago, 7.3 mb above the latest five-year average, but 18.4 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days, m-o-m, in September, to stand at 61.3 days. This is 0.6 days higher than a year ago, but 2.0 days less than the latest five-year average, and 1.2 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) is revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.4 mb/d in 2025. This represents an increase of 0.3 mb/d compared to the 2024 estimate. The demand for DoC crude in 2026 is also revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 43.0 mb/d, about 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2025 forecast.
Source: OPEC