The world economy in 2027 is forecast to see continued robust growth of 3.2%, supported by a steady expansion in the major economies. This is slightly higher than the 2026 economic growth forecast of 3.1%. Among OECD economies, the US is expected to provide strong momentum to the global economic growth dynamic in 2027. The Eurozone and Japan are also expected to experience a steady economic expansion. Within the non-OECD, key oil-consumers China and India, along with other developing Asian economies, are forecast to provide a significant contribution to world economic growth. Brazil and Russia are also expected to sustain steady growth. Meanwhile, inflation is forecast to normalize further, providing support for continued adjustments in monetary policies in most major economies. Following major trade agreements, global trade is forecast to gain traction in the near term. However, developments regarding the US-China trade agreement – which is due to expire later in the year – and the mid-year extension of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement require close monitoring.

Global oil demand in 2027 is set to expand by a healthy 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, supported by continued solid economic activity in non-OECD countries. On a regional basis, OECD oil demand is forecast to expand by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y. This is mostly from OECD Americas, with some support from OECD Europe, while the OECD Asia Pacific is projected to decline slightly. Oil demand growth in the non-OECD is expected at around 1.2 mb/d, mostly from Other Asia, India, China, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. In terms of oil products, transportation fuels are set to drive oil demand growth in 2027, with air travel anticipated to witness a further expansion, as both international and domestic traffic continue to increase.

Gasoline requirements are also expected to be supported by steadily rising road mobility in India, Other Asia, the Middle East, and the US. On-road diesel demand is expected to see support from trucking, as well as industrial, construction and agricultural activities, mainly in the non-OECD. Light distillates are forecast to be buoyed by petrochemical capacity additions, mostly in China and the Middle East.

Non-DoC liquids supply in 2027 is forecast to expand by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, underpinned by planned developments and projected upstream capital commitments. Upstream oil investment in nonDoC countries in 2027 is expected at around $284 billion, slightly higher than the spending anticipated for 2026. Non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2027 is primarily set to come from Latin America at about 0.4 mb/d, y-o-y. US liquids production is forecast to expand by a minor 30 tb/d, y-o-y, mainly from non-conventional NGLs, as US crude oil output is set to drop. In addition to offshore producers in Latin America such as Brazil, the other main liquids growth drivers are forecast to be Canada, Qatar and Argentina.
Source: OPEC