Solid global economic growth trends continued throughout 2025, despite uncertainties that surrounded the heightened trade tensions seen mostly in 1H25. Clearly, the trade distortions shaped quarterly outcomes. The US economic growth softened in 1Q25 before recovering in 2Q25, while major exporting economies – such as China – saw front-loaded trade flows. At the same time, expanding fiscal stimulus across large economies – including Germany, Japan, India, US and China – along with easing monetary policies in most major economies, helped in sustaining growth momentum. With this, the global economic growth forecast stands at 3.1% for both 2025 and 2026.

In the OECD economies, a temporary slowdown in 4Q25 linked to the US government shutdown is expected to defer some economic activities into 1Q26, as delayed federal spending and backpay are anticipated to support household and government expenditure. The easing of trade tensions, following major agreements, including the one-year truce between the US and China, is also expected to underpin 2026 growth. In the Eurozone, steady expansion in many economies, including Spain and Ireland, is projected to continue, supported by rising fiscal spending in Germany and additional defence spending across the EU. In Japan, stronger-thanexpected growth in 2025 is anticipated to moderate, but it remains supported by newly announced fiscal measures. In the non-OECD, China is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, assisted by solid export performance, the US-China trade truce and a gradually stabilizing housing market. India is projected to sustain strong growth as trade frictions with the US ease and fiscal support continues. Brazil is projected to record steady growth into 2026 amid anticipated monetary easing and as trade discussions with the US progress. Russia’s growth is projected to maintain relatively sound growth levels as well.

With this, global oil demand in 2025 is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y. This is primarily driven by the non-OECD region, which is forecast to increase by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y. The steady economic growth in Other Asia, supported by sustained economic activity in China, India, and other nonOECD countries, is expected to be the major driver of oil demand growth. In the OECD region, the OECD Americas is expected to drive oil demand growth in the region, increasing by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y. The oil demand growth in OECD Europe is set to see a marginal increase, y-o-y, while OECD Asia Pacific oil demand growth is expected to remain weak.

In 2026, the global oil demand is forecast to rise by a healthy 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y. The OECD oil demand is expected to increase by about 0.2 mb/d, again predominantly in OECD Americas, with a slight uptick from OECD Europe. The OECD Asia-Pacific is projected to remain subdued, albeit improving from 2025. In the non-OECD, a y-o-y increase of more than 1.2 mb/d is projected, with Other Asia driving growth, supported by India, China, the Middle East, and Latin America. This forecast is based on sustained economic and petrochemical activity across major consuming nations, which is expected to support demand for transportation fuels and distillates in 2026.

On the supply side, non-DoC liquids supply is forecast to grow by about 1.0 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025. The US is expected to account for about half of this expansion, with a y-o-y increase in liquids production of about 0.5 mb/d. Other key contributors to this growth include Brazil, Canada and Argentina. In 2026, the non-DoC liquids supply is forecast to expand by 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y. The expansion is expected to be driven by offshore start-ups across Latin America and the Gulf of Mexico, increased NGLs production in the US, Argentina’s tight oil output and the scaling of oil sands projects in Canada. Latin America is projected to lead non-DoC growth, accounting for about two-thirds of the total, followed by Canada and the US.
Source: OPEC