Russia’s federal budget proceeds from taxes on oil and gas are expected to drop by 46% in January from the same month in 2025 due to a weaker oil price and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations showed on Monday.

The share of oil and gas revenue accounts for around a quarter of the Russia’s federal budget proceeds and are an important part of the funds for Kremlin’s military campaign in Ukraine.

The revenue will likely to fall to around 420 billion roubles ($5.41 billion) in the first month of the year, the lowest since August 2020 when the COVID pandemic crippled global demand for fuel.

Reuters calculations are based on oil and gas production data, refining, and supplies on domestic and international markets.

Russia’s indicative rouble-denominated price of oil for tax purposes collapsed in December by 53% year-on-year to 3,073 roubles per barrel as the rouble exchange rate jumped 30.6% from the same month in 2024.

The finance ministry will publish its data on the budget’s oil and gas revenue on February 4.

The federal budget is assumed to collect 8.957 trillion roubles from oil and gas sales this year. Total budget revenues for 2026 are seen at 40.283 trillion roubles.

Last year, Russia’s federal budget revenues from oil and gas dropped 24% to 8.48 trillion roubles, the lowest level since 2020.

($1 = 77.6500 roubles)
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Bernadette Baum)