European LNG prices have seen rapid widening versus their gas equivalent, with the LNG-TTF basis spread rising 81% month over month as buyers compete for slots across the continent and North American liquefaction rates pump out spot cargoes.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the DES Northwest European marker at $12.78/MMBtu — at a 93 cents/MMBtu discount to the March Dutch TTF gas hub Jan. 30.

The NWE-TTF spread widened nearly 6% week over week from 88 cents/MMBtu and expanded almost 81% month over month from 51.5 cents/MMBtu on Dec. 30, 2025.

Prices were at $15.31/MMBtu this time last year, reflecting a 47-cent/MMBtu discount.

Increasing liquefaction rates globally, coupled with competition for slots in Europe, have seen a flurry of cargoes battling it out for entry into Europe’s gas grid.

The global LNG market has seen 27.55 million mt of additional supply hit the market in 2025. S&P Global Energy’s CERA forecasts an additional 45.51 million mt of LNG supply to hit the market this year in 2026.

“Spot volumes are going to flood Europe this year, with the arbitrage to Asia shut and cargoes competing for slots in Europe, the [LNG-TTF] basis will widen even further as more volumes hit the water,” an LNG trader said.

“For a lot of companies without regas capacity, the current spreads are dangerous. Maybe it’s a different conversation at [TTF] minus 20 or minus 30 [cents], but now at these levels it is a huge basis risk,” the trader added.

LNG-TTF basis risk
Platts’ NWE-TTF assessment Jan. 30 was at 93 cents/MMBtu, widening 5 cents/MMBtu week over week and 41.5 cents/MMBtu month over month.

In outright terms, this is around a $175,000 change week over week and $1,452,500 change month over month, which could potentially be a risk for a 3.5-TBtu cargo delivered into NWE.

To manage the widening basis risk between LNG delivered into Europe and European gas hub prices, companies have increasingly turned to the Platts DES Northwest Europe marker in TTF-linked contracts. Rather than relying solely on a fixed discount to Dutch TTF, market participants are opting to reference a floating LNG-specific benchmark that more closely tracks regional supply-demand balances, regasification constraints and shifting inter-basin competition.
European LNG contracts have historically been priced as a fixed differential to TTF, a structure that leaves traders exposed to movements in the unhedgeable LNG-to-hub spread. As that spread tightens or widens, the value of a cargo can swing materially, even when the outright TTF exposure is fully hedged, creating residual risk that cannot be managed through gas derivatives alone.

By incorporating Platts NWE alongside TTF, buyers and sellers are better able to integrate LNG economics into pipeline gas pricing, isolating the waterborne component of price risk. The growing use of the NWE marker points to a broader shift in Europe’s maturing LNG market.

“While your NWE marker needs to be on a European exchange to see the paper liquidity increase, on the physical side, companies can link it to TTF so that they have exposure to a DES LNG contract and still are able to hedge it with TTF for now,” a Europe-based trader said, adding, “What you saw was portfolio companies using the Platts NWE-TTF print alongside TTF-linked contracts to deliver some spot cargoes and strips last year.”

Companies can hedge using the Dutch TTF gas hub’s futures contracts while using a reflective LNG marker in their European contracts, other European-based traders said.

European regas capacity
Traders can manage the LNG-TTF spread through procuring regas capacity in Europe. However, with many of the available prompt slots being auctioned and increasing export capacity coming online, the market was monitoring where the potential floor for LNG-TTF spreads would be.

“With most slots now auctioned in Europe, you will find that LNG-TTF spread can collapse,” an LNG trader said, adding, “There are still some slots around, but with most being committed and all the growth in LNG supply heading to Europe, you will find that differentials could blow out.”

Regasification utilization rates in Northwest Europe have averaged 71% in January, according to CERA data. This was up from the 65% in December and 54% in January 2025.

Some key import terminals saw utilization above nameplate capacity. Dragon and Dunkirk were operating at 111% and 116%, respectively, CERA data for January showed.

Notably, Gate was at 86% and Montoir at 94%. At the same time, US liquefaction rates were around 132% in January — while down from the 139% in December, it still saw an increase from 123% in January 2025.
Source: Platts