As a physical trader of energy, Vitol has long monitored and forecast demand for crude oil and products.

In the 12 months since we first published our views on the long term outlook for oil demand, we have seen significant shifts in policy and some economic fundamentals.

Today we publish our updated outlook.

Key changes include:
• Demand level shifts higher: at its height global oil demand could reach around 112 million bpd.
• Electric vehicle (EV) adoption assumptions are revised: Slower near-term passenger car EV uptake in the United States and certain Asian countries has led us to broadly align the base case with last year’s low-EV-adoption scenario.
• Peak demand is pushed back to the mid-2030s, mostly due to demand from the road transport sector, other sectors remain broadly unchanged.

This contrasts with our February 2025 outlook, which projected demand would continue rising into the early 2030s and then decline, leaving 2040 demand roughly in line with 2024 levels.
Source: Vitol