The dry bulk segment could be one of the major beneficiaries of the trade truce between the US and China. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Xlcusiv said that “Washington and Beijing have hit the pause button. After six bruising months of tariff trench warfare, Trump and Xi agreed to a one-year truce that suspends China’s rare-earth export curbs, cuts the U.S. “fentanyl tariff” from 20% to 10%, and freezes all port fees on each other’s shipping and shipbuilding industries. It’s a tactical de-escalation with few written details but strong symbolic weight — a signal that both sides want to steady supply chains and ease inflationary pressure. For global trade, the message is simple: risk premia down a notch, visibility up a notch”.

Source: Xclusiv Shipbrokers

According to Xclusiv, “agriculture stole the spotlight. The two leaders confirmed China’s return to the U.S. soybean market, with initial purchases already under negotiation and a broader framework reportedly aiming for tens of millions of tonnes over the coming year. Shipments are expected to start immediately, restoring a flow that had been largely frozen since spring. For American farmers, it’s a badly needed reprieve; for China, a pragmatic move to secure feedstock ahead of winter and reduce dependence on South America. Prices in Chicago’s market reacted cautiously — optimism mixed with skepticism — but the physical market has already begun to stir, with new cargoes quietly booked from the Gulf and Pacific Northwest”.

The shipbroker added that “for shipping, this truce could not be timelier. The resumption of long-haul soybean trades from the U.S. to China instantly revives a key tonne-mile engine for Panamax bulkers. The absence of this route in recent months had erased close to 200 voyages and sharply thinned Q4 employment. With Brazilian and Argentine harvests not expected to reach Chinese ports before February, the U.S. window now opens wide for the next three months. Even if volumes recover to only two-thirds of a normal year, the impact on utilization and sentiment will be tangible. Atlantic-Pacific repositioning costs are already tightening lists in the Gulf, and fresh demand for prompt loadings is slowly creeping into FFA pricing for early 2026”.

“Still, a few caveats keep the euphoria in check. China’s diversification of soybean origins has deepened during the standoff, and Brazil’s logistical efficiency continues to improve — meaning U.S. share gains may be temporary. Moreover, the truce is explicitly time-limited and subject to annual review; the return of tariffs or port fees remains a risk if talks stall. Yet even a short-term normalization stabilizes trade flows, smooths freight expectations, and injects oxygen into a bulk market that had started to lose momentum after a strong summer”, Xclusiv noted.

The shipbroker concluded that “beyond dry bulk, the suspension of port fees removes a lingering cost irritant for liner and tanker operators, while the tariff reduction marginally improves voyage economics across cargo types. Chips and advanced technology remain outside the agreement, but the overall tone marks the calmest phase in U.S.–China relations since early 2024. For now, markets trade cargoes rather than headlines again — and in shipping, that shift alone is enough to change the weather”.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide