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Hormuz day 46: blockades and backchannels

Diplomatic hopes flickered on Tuesday as Pakistan said it has proposed a second round of talks between Washington and Tehran, with multiple officials confirming that discussions about fresh in-person negotiations are already underway – even as the US naval blockade of Iranian ports enters its second day and the Hormuz crisis approaches its 50th day.

Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif struck a cautiously optimistic note, telling a cabinet meeting that “the ceasefire is still holding and, as I speak, full efforts are underway to resolve the outstanding issues.” The announcement came after talks in Islamabad last weekend, led by US vice president JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, collapsed without a deal – prompting president Donald Trump to announce the naval blockade on Sunday.

Yet even as warships tightened their cordon, Trump signalled Tehran was eager to return to the table. “I can tell you that we’ve been called by the other side. They’d like to make a deal. Very badly, very badly,” he told reporters outside the Oval Office on Monday, though he did not identify which Iranian officials had been in contact.

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi pushed back firmly, blaming Washington for the breakdown. “Unfortunately, we witnessed the continued excessive demands of the American side in the negotiations, which led to the failure to achieve a result,” his ministry quoted him as saying in a call with his Saudi counterpart.

International Maritime Organization (IMO) secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez on Monday delivered some of his most pointed remarks yet on the crisis. Speaking at a press briefing in London, he made clear that the blockade compounds an already dire humanitarian situation facing seafarers.

“De-escalation is what is going to start helping us to address the crisis and to bring shipping back to the way that we used to operate. Additional restrictive measures do not really help us,” Dominguez said, responding to questions about whether the US blockade would complicate IMO efforts to evacuate trapped crews and vessels.

On the question of legality, Dominguez was unequivocal. “From a legal perspective, in accordance with international law, there is no right to prohibit the right of innocent passage, nor to impede the freedom of navigation through international straits used for international transit,” he said.

The US blockade, which took effect at 1400 GMT on Monday, applies to all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas across the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, though US Central Command said ships transiting between non-Iranian ports would not be impeded. Trump warned via social media that any Iranian fast attack boats approaching the blockade would be “immediately ELIMINATED.”

Iran responded with sweeping counter-threats. “Security in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for NO ONE,” Iranian state media reported, with the military warning that “no port in the region will be safe.” Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf addressed Trump directly: “If you fight, we will fight.”

As the crisis nears its 50th day, shipping broker BRS warned the economic consequences are beginning to crystallise. “Oil demand destruction is unequivocally starting to rear its ugly head, especially in developing Asia,” the broker said, noting that fuel protests across Europe signal the price shock is spreading beyond the immediate region.

BRS cautioned that the longer Hormuz remains effectively closed, the more severe the demand response will need to be to rebalance global markets. “Given that outside the IEA members and China, oil inventories generally remain small, it appears that as these are exhausted, so the call on demand destruction to balance markets intensifies,” the broker said, warning the outcome “could significantly curb global crude and product tanker demand.”

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