After more than 2 years of Red Sea diversions, it looks as if a return to the conventional route, via the Suez Canal, is on the cards for many shippers on the Asia-Europe and Asia-US East Coast lanes. In this Logistics Executive Briefing, we recommend that those shippers considering a return are fully prepared for the transition and seek answers to some tricky questions.

While a gradual return of ocean carriers to the Suez Canal will shorten transit times and lower freight rates over time, several shipper customers of Drewry have rightly started thinking about the practical impact of re-routing on operations, on the predictability of re-routed carrier service… and the risks any temporary negative consequences may have on their supply chains.

In Drewry’s view, if carriers are unable to provide predictable, consistent vessel arrival times, then the shipper should push back on consequential costs such as demurrage, which are outside their control.

2. Monitor progress, set-backs and red flags

For operations planning, for cost budgeting and for lead time planning, a transition to a new route will likely require many adjustments to a shipper’s logistics plans.

It is like thinking in reverse the adjustments which many companies made when the early Red Sea diversions happened and transit times became much longer, except that a return to the Suez route could be partial or haphazard.

Drewry recommends that shippers monitor not only the performance of their shipments on lanes from Asia, but also the progress of their carriers’ shipping operations and markets using frequently updated specialist “tracker” resources like the Drewry Container Capacity Insight.

Monitoring Red Sea diversions

Red Sea Diversion Tracker – assessment for 27 Jan 2026

The number of containerships sailing via the Suez Canal jumped 69% to 61 in the 2-week period ended 25th January, from a low base of 36 transits in the previous 2-week period, as large carriers and smaller niche carriers alike continued to balance the changing safety risk and the potential commercial benefit of navigating via Suez and the Red Sea.

CMA CGM, MSC and Maersk were the carriers sending the largest vessels during the latest period, although CMA CGM said last week that it would pause sending its ships via the Red to and from the Far East for now. The fact that the Houthis posted a video threatening to resume attacks on ships, reportedly to support Iran, must have played a part in CMA CGM’s decision.

In the 2-week period ended 11th January, CMA CGM and MSC had sent 6 ships of more than 8,000teu via the Suez Canal. The equivalent number for 2-week period ended 25th January was 10 – still very low, by pre-Red Sea attacks standards.

Monitoring transit times

Transit times on the Asia-North Europe & Med route have started to improve and sailing times in the coming weeks are expected to shorten. A full return towards the 20-day average pre-pandemic transit is likely to be gradual, and dependent on operating conditions, weather and service deployment.

Monitoring port congestion

Continuous port congestion is recorded at some key European and Asian ports, with maximum ship waiting time reaching 6 days in Hamburg port, 8 days in Shanghai port and an average waiting times often exceeding 1 day during week 3. Over the same period, port congestion has improved in both Antwerp and Valencia ports.

Monitoring import dwell times

From November to December, import dwell times dropped in Antwerp, Hamburg, and New York, while Genoa saw an increase to nearly six days. During the same period, Valencia recorded a one-day reduction, but import dwell times remained elevated at around five days in December.

Monitoring ship schedule reliability

In December, carriers’ average schedule reliability on the major East-West routes dropped by 2 percentage points MoM to 47%. The marginal drop was driven by weaker performance on the Transpacific and Asia–North Europe & Med trades, partially offset by improvements on the Transatlantic and South Asia–North Europe & Med. Asia-Europe carrier schedule reliability declined between November and December.

Top 3 performers in Asia-North Europe & Med schedule reliability, in December, were Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC.

As port congestion eases and more vessels return to the Suez route, schedule reliability should improve.

• Monitoring carrier performance

Despite strong year-on-year growth in capacity on the Asia–North Europe & Med trade in February (+20%), near-term supply conditions are tightening. A sharp MoM increase in blank sailings from 12 to 36 from January to February, is expected to drive a 17% reduction in effective capacity from January to February.

This suggest that carriers are actively managing capacity to adjust to soft demand and port congestion constraints. Consequently, shippers may face space reductions in the near term, despite the apparent YoY expansion.

• 3. From monitoring to action

Why should shippers monitor these external indicators, particularly for Asia-Europe/Mediterranean and Asia-US East Coast lanes?

• A sudden increase in ship waiting times at major ports or a rise in either import dwell times or spot rates would be “red flags” that the transition back to the Suez route is constrained by operational issues and that the risk to lead times remains high.
• Steady (or improving) schedule reliability or a continuous reduction in “best transit times” (defined here as direct transit times from the last port of call in Asia to the first port in the destination region) would indicate that the Suez return is going well and can be relied on.

So, for shippers, it is important to determine what a likely return to the Suez route actually means to them, how predictable it is, and whether it will actually imply less – not more – variance in lead times and fewer – not more – surprises in how the shipment flows happen.
Source: Drewry