Donald Trump is once again picking fights with allies, as much as adversaries. The U.S. president wants the G7, NATO and the European Union to slap tariffs of up to 100% on all Chinese and Indian goods in retaliation for their purchases of Russian crude, promising Washington would match them. The plan sounds tough. In practice, it underlines Trump’s reluctance to bear costs himself – and a glaring blind spot on gas.

Europe is an unlikely recruit. China is the bloc’s second-largest trading partner, shipping 520 billion euros of goods of all types last year. Blunt tariffs would fuel inflation and invite harsh retaliation on supply-chain chokepoints like rare earths. India, meanwhile, is no softer target. Despite previous U.S. duties on its goods, New Delhi continues to import 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil every day with China picking up much of the surplus ones. That underlines how Trump has largely stuck with the system of his predecessor Joe Biden, which saw Russian oil subject to a price cap rather than an outright ban on sales.

An even more obvious sign that Trump has been pulling his punches is liquefied natural gas. Biden’s administration targeted Russia’s LNG sector, sanctioning Novatek’s NVTK Arctic LNG 2 project and blacklisting tankers. That discouraged ports, buyers and financiers from expanding purchases. Yet in August, China received the first sanctioned cargo from Arctic LNG 2 at a strategically chosen port. More vessels are on the way. Trump, strikingly, has so far looked the other way, declining to sanction Chinese buyers or terminals.

That leaves a potentially large loophole. Analytics firm Kpler reckons Russian LNG shipments to Asia could grow by 10.9 million tonnes a year by 2026 – equal to around 14% of China’s imports in 2024. For Beijing, the flows help diversify away from Qatar and Australia. For Moscow’s slowing economy, these revenues matter just as much as crude.

Obsessing about oil while tolerating LNG sanctions violations suggests Washington is unwilling to confront China directly. Brussels, meanwhile, was due on Friday to unveil the latest in a long line of Russia-connected sanctions that has seen it focus on tankers on the LNG front. While these may be tougher, there are limits to what the bloc could do: it remains Russian LNG’s top buyer, and if China buys less Qatari and Australian gas then more will find its way to Europe, at lower prices. That’s handy for European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, given elevated domestic energy prices and the EU plans to end purchases of Russian oil and gas by the start of 2028.

By insisting Europeans move first, Trump can blame allies for weakness while avoiding escalation himself. For Putin, the bigger message is clear: U.S. threats may sound tough, but without consistency or follow-through they ring hollow.
Source: Reuters