The United Arab Emirates’ decision to quit OPEC could mark the emergence of an “anti-OPEC club” of oil producers favoring higher output and lower prices, analysts at BCA Research said in a note.

BCA analysts said the Iran war likely accelerated Abu Dhabi’s exit from the producer group, but deeper tensions over production quotas and geopolitical rivalry with Saudi Arabia were the primary drivers.

“The UAE became increasingly unwilling to relinquish its national oil production policy to Riyadh,” the analysts wrote, noting the country had expanded production capacity while chafing under OPEC limits.

Analysts said the UAE is better positioned than many Gulf producers to withstand lower oil prices because of its relatively low fiscal breakeven levels. They added that Abu Dhabi likely wants flexibility to rapidly raise output once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

BCA said the UAE’s departure would have little immediate impact on oil markets in 2026 because disruptions around Hormuz remain the dominant constraint on regional supply.

Over the longer term, however, the analysts warned the exit could weaken OPEC’s ability to defend oil prices by reducing the cartel’s share of global production and spare capacity.

BCA said countries such as Venezuela and Kazakhstan could eventually follow the UAE’s path, creating a loosely aligned bloc of U.S.-friendly producers prioritizing output growth over coordinated supply restraint.

Such an “anti-OPEC club” would likely create a long-term headwind for crude prices, analysts added.
Source: Investing.com