Russian state oil and gas revenue is set to fall in July by around 37% from the same month in 2024 to 680 billion roubles ($8.66 billion) due to cheaper oil and a stronger local currency, Reuters calculations show.

Oil and gas revenue has been the most important source of cash for the Kremlin, making up a quarter of total federal budget proceeds.

The proceeds are also set to increase by 37% from June due to cyclical payments of oil profit-based tax.

The decline in proceeds is painful for Russia, which has heavily boosted defence and security spending since launching its military campaign in Ukraine, which it calls a special military operation, in February 2022.

According to Reuters calculations, the average Russian oil price calculated in roubles has stayed below the federal budget’s target for 2025.

Russia’s oil and gas revenue for January-July could decline by 20% year-on-year to 5.4 trillion roubles, according to Reuters calculations.

The finance ministry will publish its estimates on August 5.

The ministry had initially planned to earn 10.94 trillion roubles from oil and gas sales this year, but due to falling oil prices, it revised that expectation down to 8.32 trillion roubles.

Oil and gas revenue reached 11.13 trillion roubles last year.
Source: Reuters